https://x.com/BTC_Archive/status/1884172875772678590
Reverse Cramer? Really?
Crypto Twitter is losing their collective shit today because it's being reported that Jim Cramer told people to buy Bitcoin.
Microstrategy, okay, look, I'd say: if you want to own Bitcoin; own Bitcoin. I own Bitcoin. You should own Bitcoin. Bitcoin's a great thing to
addto have in your portfolio, but not Microstrategy; just own the Bitcoin.
Look at what he ACTUALLY SAID.
He said: DONT OWN MSTR. This is who you're trading against. These people have the emotional range of toddlers and can't even follow their own rules. In what simulation is MSTR hyper-bullish after crushing the Dot Com peak all-time-highs but Bitcoin is bearish at the obvious six-figure unit-bias level? THAT DOESNT MAKE ANY GOD DAMN SENSE!
Cramer NEVER said to buy Bitcoin.
He said he owns Bitcoin. He said you should own Bitcoin. He said Bitcoin was a great thing to add but then stuttered and immediately corrected himself to say it should be in your portfolio. He's saying you should have already bought it; not that you should buy it. Learn the difference, plebs. These knee-jerk reactions I'm seeing are comical, to say the least.
"It's so over, fam."
What no one seems to understand about the Wall Street cheat sheet is that it's absolutely non-linear. Bitcoiners look at this thing and think dirp-a-dur it's a 4-year cycle so we must be getting one of these emotions once every four years. Yeah, not how it works; we've devolved back into Disbelief after the the brutal 8-month crab market we endured. Everyone and their mother is saying "This is a sucker's rally". It's obvious, and none of them can see it. These people are never going to improve themselves. The average will always be the average.
Never in the history of Bitcoin have people been so god damn bearish at the literal top. Why is this? Multiple reasons:
- $100k is a toxic level that's sucking liquidity away from alts.
- Bitcoin dominance is still at the local high.
- Almost everyone is convinced that 2025 won't be as good as 2021.
- People are greedy cowards, and this fact gets exacerbated with mainstream adoption new users flooding the space.
- Very few are understanding where the selling pressure is coming from.
- We've been conditioned to want instant gratification and don't have the discipline to wait for a few months.
Look around at the people asking if this is the top. Are those the people who are actually going to make money this cycle? Are they really the genius top sellers? No, it's a midwit take; hardly anyone calls the actual top. This trade is WAY too crowded. The sidelines are full. The market is boring right now. Fucking deal with it. We're not special snowflakes.
On a very real level it is highly upsetting to me that we have all collectively been preaching to PLEASE DO NOT FADE THE FOUR YEAR CYCLE THIS TIME IS NOT DIFFERENT. Everything was looking good and people are onboard with the plan and them something happens and the sheep are like OMG I THINK THIS TIME IS DIFFERENT and everyone starts losing their nerve. Toughen up, buttercup.
And while this may be upsetting it's also exactly the reason why the four year cycle can continue to play out like marvelous mastercraft clockwork. People stop believing in it at literally the dumbest time every four years and they chop themselves up while the sharks eat up all the loose ends. Please, stop being paper handed. The biggest dips we are getting are 15%. It's so embarrassing.
Of course again a lot of this assumes that we all have exposure to Bitcoin, and the reason why so many are panicking right now is that... they don't. Everyone who is all in on alts is feeling mightily fucked right about now... and it's a lot easier for conviction to be waning in that scenario.
But hey, let me tell you something: if this is the end of the bull market: that is a GOOD thing. VOLATILITY IS BAD. The bull market ending here would be great. Many assume it's guaranteed that alts suffer 95% losses across the board no matter where the top is. That is nonsense. A higher top creates a higher bottom. Those are the rules of volatility. What goes up must come down. If it doesn't go up it doesn't have to come down. That's actually the ideal scenario, which is why it's never going to happen. This is crypto, after all.
Three Peaks to Rule them ALL!
I wrote this post on October 30th. That was the day Bitcoin hit $72k and we were just days away from the rally to $100k. Even decent 4-year cycle analysis like Rektcapital above assumes that Bitcoin 2025 can't outperform 2021. This diminishing return theory is a complete farce based on invalid datapoints like COVID in which the entire world economy got shut down.
We have only had 3 real bull markets in Bitcoin. 2013 doesn't count because it was the new-asset-class bull market and the first time we had ever seen the affects of the halving event. 2021 doesn't count because the Biden administration was illegally assaulting crypto using the private banking sector as a weapon, on top of shutting down the entire world economy. The only rally that could give us any indication as to what might happen this time around is 2017.
And 2017 was fucking WILD
The baseline on the 2017 was something like $1000. From there we went around x20 to a peak of $19500. In 2025 the baseline is very obviously $58k. I should not have to explain why. If we go x20 from that baseline we are going higher than $1M per BTC. In fact I'm certain that the absolute lowest target we should be shooting for is $400k. Could I be wrong? Uh yeah but it will be obvious because the time targets are more important than the price targets. We just have to WAIT and see where we are in November 2025.
September 2025 could be a top signal.
A lot of this 4-year analysis is guessing that the top might be 8 months from now. This is interesting because September is ALWAYS a buy month. Always always always. In fact the biggest gain we've ever gotten in a September was four months ago and it was only 8% with a huge dip in the start that I was aggressively longing and profiting from.
Point being is that if we get something crazy like a +30% gain in September 2025 people are going to be very bullish, and that is potentially the most ultimate top signal we are going to get. I'm still quite skeptical it can happen but I am very much paying attention to the possibility.
Tech does not have diminishing returns.
I'm old enough to remember when a 16KB stick of RAM was considered a lot, and RAM was F-ing expensive back then too. If you had told anyone, "Hey I think in forty years we'll all be using 16GB RAM sticks," people would have laughed in your face. An x1000000 gain in RAM in half a lifetime? We're all going to have supercomputers in our homes? You must be an idiot!
Well guess what? We live in the future now. It happened. And everyone pretends like they weren't the idiot who thought it was impossible. This is how people operate on a psychological level. Most people are larping toddlers pretending to play the part of an adult, and they will never EVER grow up.
Crypto IS tech.
Crypto does not have diminishing returns because 2021 sucked. That is not how it works. In fact we do not need to wait 40 years for crypto to go x1000000. Why is that? Because crypto fixes our economic systems, and it has been our economic systems holding back tech and syphoning the gains from it this entire time. Because crypto is both technology and an economic system it is the magic solution that's going to jailbreak all other technologies and send them soaring to infinity.
Think about it.
We are measuring all value using an asset that we know is losing value. We are measuring everything in USD... knowing that USD is not a good asset to measure things with long term; the ruler just keeping growing longer and longer. Go back 100 years and you could buy a piece of candy with 1 COPPER penny. What can you do with a zinc penny today? Literally nothing, and the cost to mint the penny is five times the value of the penny. We live in a disgusting bloated world of cancerous growth and fetid waste. Thanks Boomers; you've really outdone yourselves on this run.
The price of food is going down. The price of housing is going down. Literally the price of everything is going down, but everyone thinks it's going up because the USD value is higher. Nothing is going up. USD is going down. And it's going down way way more than anyone thinks it is. The CPI only measures how much things went up in terms of USD. We have absolutely no idea how much those assets have decreased in price due to modern technology and improved worldwide logistics. The actual numbers are STAGGARING, and we have no idea what they are because bankers are quite literally time-vampires.
Conclusion
So how much will Bitcoin be worth in 10 years? Well my guess is x1000 every ten years. So yeah: $100M for one BTC. Think it's not possible? Of course it is. This is technology and we are measuring against a vampiric asset that no longer serves our interests. USD can go down just as much as Bitcoin goes up. There is no limit and there are no diminishing returns. Count on it.