Good Omens
Today another completely random event popped into my timeline. There was a small earthquake in New Jersey this morning. I was just about ready to jump under my desk if it started getting worse. But it turned out to be nothing more than a tremor here in east PA. Funny, I thought I moved out of California. Blast from the past.
Apparently this is not a normal thing in this area. Because we've lived on the west coast fault-line for decades it wasn't really a big deal for us, but other locals around here were quite shook... literally and figuratively. My girlfriend's coworker said it, "felt like a car hit my house". But apparently she was working from home (which is closer to NJ) so it's hard to tell how much of an exaggeration that is.
What I can tell you is that when it happened I wasn't too keen about being on the 3rd floor of an apartment building. Not the most awesome feeling regardless of how small it was. Just a fun little reminder that life is fleeting and Mother Nature can end you in a moment's notice at any time. Cheers!
Friday's earthquake was the strongest in NJ since 1783. A look back at quake history
lol so I did not realize they were this rare until doing this Google search just now. The quake we got today was pretty much as big as they come, as quakes in this area are small, but also apparently felt for wider distances.
But earthquakes that happen in New Jersey and the East Coast are often felt further away and by more people because of the types of rocks we have.
”The types of rocks we have tend to be more crystalline rocks that allow the shaking to be transmitted over a larger distance.”
Fascinating
Alright so let's recap our list of omens.
- Earthquakes (Taiwan and New Jersey are the ones I'm noting)
- Aries Mercury in retrograde (already made $2000 on that one)
- Two solar eclipses with the next not for another 20 years
- Mother of Dragons comet (+4/20)
- Jupiter conjunct Uranus (once every 17 years) on 4/20
- Halving on 4/20
- 4/20 on 4/20
- Full moon and the end of retrograde around April 24th
Jupiter conjunct Uranus
The conjunction takes place on April 20th 2024 signaling groundbreaking shifts to the collective consciousness. Jupiter and Uranus are only conjunct around once every 14 years. Jupiter symbolizes growth, opportunity, and the broader aspects of existence, while Uranus represents sudden changes and disruptions.
On top of everything else Jupiter and Uranus are in alignment on 4/20. That's wierd... how often does that happen? Ah, once every 17 years. Sure. And what do the crystals girls say about it? Growth and opportunity vs sudden changes and disruptions. Sure sure.
So let me get this straight...
Not only is Mercury retrograde disruptive...
and Aries is yolo...
and the eclipse is disruptive...
and NASA is firing rockets into the eclipse to test disruption...
but also this?
The alignment is real.
MOTHER OF DRAGONS
Oh sorry did you need moar astrology?
However, what makes this celestial object stand out is that it's a cryvolcanic, or cold volcano comet, meaning that it regularly erupts, spewing the contents of its icy core into space, making the comet look brighter than normal.
Prior outbursts have made it appear as if the comet sported a pair of horns, likely due to a notch of ice or rock within the comet that split its frosty ejecta plume in two.
On April 21, the comet will make its closest approach to the sun.
WHAT!?!
Horned devil comet that comes around once every 71 years. Cool... cool cool cool cool.
Will be close to Earth on 4/20 as well.
Okay then.
And guess what? They think we might be able to see this comet during the eclipse when it's dark during the middle of the day. "Will the Mother of Dragons comet photobomb the solar eclipse?" This is a literal question people are asking. lol. wut?
Blow-off-top completing.
Bitcoin still very obviously trapped inside this record-breaking all-time-high wedge before the "havling" event. My analysis? DOWN! DOWN DOWN DOWN DOWN DOWN. Sold all my assets on MEXC today into USDT and I'm just looking for short openings ($70k would be nice).
I've gone into full bargaining mode.
Please pump one more time so I can short this chart into the dirt.
Sun God Ra and Goddess Moon I beg of you.
Unfortunately the price is just stuck in a balanced middle position right now and the eclipse is not imminent so I'm not feeling any pressure to open my shorts now. But I do feel a lot better having a big chonk of USDT on the exchange... something that is very very rare for me indeed, as my normal mode of operation is unapologetic permabull.
But number just can't go up.
And it's not because of planet alignment or solar eclipses... it's because this is the most overhyped halving event I have ever seen. The complete and utter delusion is real. The second the event happens and people realize it's not some magical number-go-up-instantly situation... guess what happens? Cascading sell pressure.
Also April
Look at every April on the chart ever:
- 2023: CRAB ($27k-30k) Dumped in May.
- 2022: DOWN ($46k) arguably the very beginning of the bear market.
- 2021: CRAB ($50k-$63k) Dumped in May.
- 2020: COVID RECOVERY
- 2019: CRAB ($5k flat) Stepping stone to summer 2019 BAKKT rally.
- 2018: DEAD BOUNCE ($7k >> $9k >> $7k)
- 2017: CRAB ($1000-$1300 slowly up) tiny move in the biggest bull market.
- 2016: CRAB ($420-$460 slowly up) summer halving rally coming.
- 2015: CRAB
- 2014: DEAD BOUNCE RIP BULL MARKET
- 2013: CRAB
Seriously though
April is not a good month. Ever. And in the current climate we have every signal pointing to complete and utter disruption... but also with the promise of opportunity in the wake of that stumble. The ETF and halving are still strong long term but very weak short term.
So we have at ask ourselves which kind of April we are in right now... and honestly no matter which one it is, it's not good... because it's obviously not the, "March was terrible and we are in recovery mode" type. In fact it's clearly the exact opposite: record-breaking all time high March one month before a sell-the-news event into a crabwalk.
I've been saying in previous posts that I still think summer is bullish... but honestly on the zoomed out chart it doesn't even look like we have time for that to be possible. This is why I'm hoping we flash crash into the $50k-$58k range and just hope that "this time is different"... which it kind of is because of the ETF adoption. Still, nothing is going to stop that wave of selling a disappointing halving event. These sales are programmed in at this point.
Who remembers my cycle chart?
It's not particularly useful but you will note that I give April its own color because it is just such a weird and pivotal month in which nothing usually happens but it marks some kind of transition. According to the 4-year cycle that transition should eventually turn bullish (2020/2016/2012).
Still, we have to expect some pain coming down the line, and the overhyped FOMO event is as good a place to expect as any. Although in retrospect will we really remember a 20%-30% dip as max pain? Maybe this is all just a rounding error in the grand scheme. Guess we'll find out.
Expect a big dump April 8th - 10th
And then to top it all off the retrograde ends near a full moon ~April 24th.
It's the perfect window for extreme fuckery to occur.
Everything between April 8th and the 24th is cancer.
Ultimately the best thing that could happen is that we start crashing hard and fall out of this wedge as soon as possible. Why is that the best thing? Because it gives us the opportunity to flush all the bullshit quickly and rip the bandaid off as fast as possible. If we crash hard and fast now it's much more likely that summer can actually give us another good run... although maybe it's naïve to even hope for such a thing considering the problems in the stock market and the rest of the economy. It's basically all reliant on the ETFs constantly buying up every dip, which honestly isn't even something we should necessarily root for due to the caliber of user buying (rich and greedy people gaining control of our favorite networks).
But what if you're wrong?
Then I have no problem with making money. If I'm wrong I win. It's if I'm right that I'm going to lose money. Taking a few gains off the table isn't going to change that; it's just going to keep me sane while everyone else is losing their minds. This is a mitigation tactic (hedge).
The goal here is to reduce volatility as much as possible until we get past this crazy time. I will continue betting on the trend, and the trend says crab and then down as so many months of April have done before now. If Bitcoin starts posting new all time highs? Good! I was wrong and I can stop shorting. That's simply not going to happen though. There's no way we get back to ATH without a flush followed by a trough of babyrage.
The gods demand sacrifice.
Conclusion
A psychic scream is being uttered throughout the cosmos.
Can you hear it? It's not a pretty song.
Time to duck and cover. A storm is coming.
The market vampire will feast this month.
Blood red.