Another full moon cycle completed.
Almost a week ago I wrote a post titled: Gas up the Rocket: It's Moon Time. That was pretty aggressively bullish sentiment considering the tiny pump we saw at the time, but so far it's worked out, as we've finally made a recovery back into the bullish channel that I drew a few months ago.
Looking pretty nice
A few days ago we got our first golden cross between the MA(25/50). On top of that, the MA(100) is leveling off much faster than I thought it would, so it's possible we completely avoid the final death-cross between the 100 day and 200 day average lines. Even if it happens at this point the move will be a shallow one, which have a habit of quick recovery or even zero response.
On the flipside, today is a new moon, and weirdly enough we still seem to be moving on these 2-week moon cycles, so in theory the next two weeks might be pretty not great. In my opinion the best case scenario would be locking in and maintaining our position within this bullish channel that entire time, but I somewhat expect price will come down to confirm support at a key level. This makes even more sense when we consider that price has been hanging for 5 days straight and really could falter at any time.
Key points to confirm a higher-low support are $85k at the top of the liquidity void, $88k at the initial breakout zone, or $91k around the MA(100). These are not big moves so I expect it to be pretty boring and anti-climatic no matter what happens. Even a move to $100k at this point is pretty boring and potentially even worth a quick short. I'm always suspect of 3 definitive pumps in a row, just like when Hive capped out around 60 cents in January.
Why pamp?
Everyone looks for a reason for why the price does this or that. Some tidbit of recent news is usually attributed to the move, but there doesn't need to be a reason. A better question to ask is why the price has been suppressed this long to begin with considering all the institutional adoption. Or perhaps we need to even question our own perception of time as it pertains to the flow of money. Has it really been "a long time"? Do we have the patience necessary to stay objective and unbiased during a long awaited bull market year?
If anyone was truly honest with themselves they'd have to admit that this type of expectation bias has a significant effect on every market participant. Just look at all the plebs that are 100% convinced that Coinbase is minting gobs of paper Bitcoin because "number no go up". There is zero evidence or even reason for an institution like Blackrock to allow such a thing because it goes against their entire business model (they literally lose money by suppressing the price), but nobody seems to care about the details, they'd rather just blame someone else for their own irrational feelings. Who actually believes Coinbase is getting a one-up against a Goliath like Blackrock? Be serious.
Where is the current trendline?
That's the neat thing... there is no trendline. We are in that super awkward middling era looking for a new one. Of course seeing as the old one might be the new one we'll just have to wait and see how that goes.
Where do those solid yellow lines come from?
The previous uptrends we've had seem to be derived during periods in which the 200-day-moving-average starts going up in a straight line for multiple months. Extrapolating that line and extending it forward has been surprisingly relevant to my TA for the last 13 months. It seems to get a lot of respect from the local price action.
Of course those trendlines are not really suitable for where we'd like to see the price go. Say we continued inside that bullish channel till the end of the year: We'd get to ~$140k by December. Obviously that's not terrible at all, but if we want "banana zone" parabolic action we'll need to break above it for that volcanic blow-off top we've been expecting. Of course that doesn't need to happen for quite some time so we continue to wait. I'm still pretty confident (as I am every year) that September will be a good place to load back up and buy the dip from any kind of summer action we receive.
https://companiesmarketcap.com/assets-by-market-cap/
NOICE!
Bitcoin has once again flipped silver on the global stage and sits at rank #7 of most valuable assets in the world by market cap. Notice how flipping Google and Amazon will be a trivial affair. Personally I'm absolutely convinced Bitcoin will easily pull another x2, flipping Apple and claiming the #2 slot right under gold (which happens to tower over everything else by a factor greater than x7).
Takes money to make money!
Once Bitcoin gets to #2 on this list it becomes absolutely impossible to ignore or fade. Already Bitcoin is the #2 non-security asset (as everything above it is a stonk except gold). Once it flips the biggest companies in the world it's so on. A lot of the big players who have been willfully ignoring it will no longer be able to do so, and that will be a very interesting moment in history, creating a flywheel that just pushes the price up more (presumably into the Banana Zone). This is why I still fully believe that Bitcoin can exploded up to $500k or higher during the current cycle, and I expect to flip gold the cycle after that so we can all drink the sweet milk of Peter Schiff's tears. Too far?
Wen altmarket?
That's the real question innit?
Honest answer is that I have no idea.
My current best guess which I have verbalized a couple times is that we need to reach escape velocity and get away from the toxic liquidity suck that is $100k. Getting up to $120k would hopefully yield the desired effect, but again that's just kind of a wild guess I like to throw out with unearned confidence. I am certain that alts have been stomped on pretty hard so when they do rip the result will be a little more explosive than usual during the fishtail.
Conclusion
The market has a tendency to disappoint us right when things are looking up.
- Don't get caught off guard in the short term; expect some struggle-bus action in the immediate future.
- Moving averages have shifted into the market's favor.
- We've been seeing bullishly decorrelated moves from the stonk market.
- The current uptrend is unknown but might end up being the old one.
- The world rank of Bitcoin matters and forces the most powerful people to recognize it's presence and even show it some respect.
- Alts are still at the whim of macro liquidity flow.