It has never been more apparent that we are ever trading in more and more of a unit-bias market. Since breaking previous all time highs at $20k, Bitcoin has been moving 'perfectly' between the lines in $5k increments.
From $20k to $25k... once that gets broken from $25k to $30k. Then once $30k gets broken the market became unstable: $30k to $35k to $30k to $40k to $30k to $40k again... on to test $30k two more times to quadruple test the bottom while the market hangs in disbelief.
Then we spike right from $40k to $45k just on the news of Tesla buying in as we continue on to $50k.
Unit-bias stronk.
We've been near $50k for a 'while' and many in the industry are getting impatient and anxious. Is the party over or has it just begun? I'm guessing as soon as we break that HUGE unit-bias barrier ($50k is half way to $100k 6 digits OMG!) it will spike up again right to $55k or even $60k. Assuming resistance at $50k is nothing but fluff of course. It may or may not be.
Considering everything that's going on it simply feels like the market is in disbelief again. We are in a pocket of overwhelmingly bullish sentiment, and it's going to take a Black Swan event to bring this rocket back to Earth.
Corporations (especially tech companies) are finally figuring out that the thing that gives crypto value is precisely that they do not control it. Michael Saylor is seemingly single handedly bringing them all into the fold and telling them how it is.
Not a security!
With all the current and future corporate adoption on the horizon, it is a huge deal at this point that Bitcoin and Ethereum have been declared "not securities" by the SEC. This leads to many positive developments in the space and allows many institutions to enter free of worry.
Michael Saylor is also on record (Twitter) by announcing that he doesn't have to report his Bitcoin holdings as such (a security) and that MicroStrategy does not require a license even if 100% of their reserves are held in Bitcoin. If Bitcoin was a security, corporations absolutely would need a special license to hold over a certain percent on their balance sheet. This is a very big deal when it comes to regulatory oversight and overhead cost to make these moves.
The screaming success of corporations that move their money into Bitcoin is likely going to cause them to eventually FOMO in at ridiculous levels like $250k. Even if a corporation loses 80% of the money they put into Bitcoin in the short term (say a drop from $250k to $50k) they still get the benefit of increased stock price. By in large, every corporation that enters Bitcoin, especially during these early stages, gets a free pump of their own security... pretty good deal. There are multiple hedges here for them to capitalize on.
Hive
How much longer until we feel priced out of the market? Yesterday I was thinking about pulling the trigger and loading up more Hive, and now I see we've broken 25 cents. Pretty bullish territory we are in right now.
The Golden Cross is still in play and our moving averages are fanned out spectacularly. The 7-day moving average is still acting as support, so if we crash back to that level... currently around 22 or 23 cents, I may pull the trigger.
It's also important to ask the question: When does Hive get declared "not a security" by the SEC? Might not happen for another 4 years, but when it does it's going to be a doozy.
Hive even has the perfect history to make this announcement a reality. We were literally attacked in the exact manner that one would expect a security to get taken over in a hostile manner. We even lost the hostile takeover, but it didn't matter, as all we had to do was fork to Hive and remove the hostile agent.
Now that it's all said and done, these horrific past events can only be interpreted in the most bullish of lights. What didn't kill us made us stronger. Hive clearly isn't controlled by a centralized entity, and we have the definitive history to prove that. It's only a matter of time before we are declared "not a security" as well and institutions will be taking a look at what we have going on over here.
What are corporations going to see on Hive?
Lite accounts that make onboarding easy. Addresses in the form of user names that also makes onboarding easier. Multiple layers of key security. Account recovery. Transaction fees get paid with a renewable resource (aka free for stakeholders). And that's just the tip of the iceberg, or in this case the base-layer that everyone already takes for granted.
What about dear old LEO?
LEO also looking very sexy, but it's hard to ignore Hive when everything else is trading at all time highs. Regardless, there are a lot of reasons to be bullish on LEO, and I'm not just referring to the upcoming airdrops and connections to traditional social media.
One of the main reasons I'm bullish on LEO is due to the supply, which is enforced by a community of diehard holders. If LEO gets any kind of meaningful listing on any exchange, where are those tokens going to come from?
There is only one place they can come from: Uniswap. The only way to get the liquidity necessary to load up other exchanges with LEO is to pump the Uniswap pool with ETH. This would trigger a massive price increase.
As it stands now, pumping the wLEO Uniswap pool with 440 ETH (doubling it) would only get 600k LEO in return. This would immediately quadruple the price, and that's assuming that the value of ETH doesn't keep going up as well.
440 ETH is not a lot.
Whales are currently spending more ETH than that on singular rare NFTs. The market has gone crazy. It's only a matter of time before LEO catches a bid to the upside.
Conclusion
This network is hugely bullish: Hive and LEO both. LEO may be trading at all time highs, but it is also a community of diehard holders. Supply crunches are easy to attain on all fronts.
Unit-bias is a very powerful motivator for some. $50k means a lot to a lot of people, but it is also only a 2% gain from where we are now. Our brain likes clean corners and round-numbers, to the point of making serious errors when those patterns work against our favor. The market has a way of fleecing illogical emotional decisions.
Corporations will continue to buy in. The roads are being paved and the transitions are smooth. 2021 will be the year of the corporate buyout. Make them pay for it.