I mean obviously I'm reporting on this a bit late as many players on Hive have already reported on this 16 hours ago... but it's huge news. It's also weird news. It's news that's simultaneously shocking but also somehow completely expected.

XRP is not a security.

Obviously right? I've written a dozen posts on this topic a dozen times and reached the same conclusion from multiple angles.. No matter how we chalk up the issue it's quite apparent that XRP does not apply to any of the Howey Test Prongs. Even the "an investment of money" prong is arguable (Because crypto is smart-money in itself). This is what happens when they try to use a hundred year old law on cutting edge technology. Plain and simple it's not going to make any damn sense.

The only reason people were certain Ripple would lose the lawsuit is that it "sounded right" to them. Of course these people did research into how securities law actually works. We all know that XRP is a centralized hunk of premined shit, but that's not how the law works.

I secretly thought they might lose just because the court system is obviously rigged and I didn't have a lot of faith in the judge to make the correct ruling with so much pressure coming in from nefarious forces. But it seems we have prevailed. Truly this is a win for everyone.

Very much a green day.

And this is just the beginning. No one seems to be making that big a deal out of this case because their bags haven't mooned yet. Even XRP is 'only' up 64%, which again is simultaneously a ton but also not very much considering the ramifications of this case. XRP is a buy even at these inflated prices... but this assumes one is only buying to turn a profit. Funny how that works out considering it was just legally ruled to not be an investment contract. I would never advise anyone to buy or hold XRP simply on principal alone. I feel like performing such action puts one on the wrong side of history and could even somehow prove detrimental to our reputations going forward.

Don't be surprised if the next bull run mimics 2017 with the size of its scale. Back in 2020 I was predicting that peak greed would be signaled in the 2021 run by XRP moving into the #2 slot, flipping ETH like it did back in 2017. That didn't happen, and the reason for that is a combination of factors including this lawsuit.

Now that the lawsuit has been won and everyone and their mother is talking about CBDCs (which is fully Ripple's wheelhouse) things could get pretty crazy. If there was any doubt whatsoever that the Bitcoin bottom is in and we are actually at the foothills of a bull run, this completely dispels that illusion. The bottom is in. This is a bull run. Hands down guaranteed. There is no argument. The only question is how long it's going to last. My guess is somewhere between 6 months and two years. That's how big a deal this case is.

BLACKROCK

Only a matter of time now before the ETF gets approved. Only a matter of time before halving FOMO kicks in. We are finally going to get a chance to sell some crypto at a reasonable price. How many of us will drop the ball and get greedy as the FOMO monster sucker punches us once again?

This time is...

In fact we can already see FOMO patterns pop up once again. When people talk about Blackrock, the subtext is "this time is different". This time is not different... it's never different. Stop thinking this time is different. Buy the rumor, sell the news. Those are the rules. That means now is the time to buy. The BTC Blackrock spot EFT is the news to be sold. I'm 100% going to sell at least a little bit 1 week before that EFT launches. Maybe 1 month. Still haven't decided yet. Timing these things is impossible but it's fun to try.

Speculation

No matter how much money people think is going to pour in from something like a Blackrock ETF... the market will ALWAYS TRY TO PRICE IT IN (and the market includes Blackrock itself). Always always always. There is no amount of money in existence that can pump Bitcoin higher than the speculators that want to frontrun that action. This always leads to pumps and dumps that are the opposite of what we'd expect. Speculation is instant. Actual fundamentals take YEARS to create actual value. Actual value can never be priced in, but the market continues to try to do just that over and over again. What they are really doing is just gambling against other speculators and hoping to time it right. Typical degens.

Coinbase & Binance

The SEC is pretty much guaranteed to lose every single one of their high-profile crypto cases from here on out. Not only that, many of these smaller operations will see the Ripple victory and rally behind it: refusing the settle with the SEC and pay the fee and instead fight it out in court. Most of those cases will be won as well.

At this point there is like a 0% chance that the SEC can beat an entity like Coinbase in court. Coinbase has done nothing but bend over backwards in an attempt at compliance. It is known. They are the poster-child for following the rules, and they have all the receipts to back that up.

Binance could lose their case against the SEC, but also a lot of the evidence seems to be circumstantial and hearsay. It was quite obvious that the SEC was not protecting investors at all, and the goal was to hit us as hard as they possibly could. Seriously though why would anyone make official 2 high profile cases against the two biggest players of a volatile industry back to back within 1 day if they wanted to "protect investors". Combine that with the rumors of insider trading and things really start getting interesting.

At the end of the day it doesn't even matter if the SEC wins vs Binance.US anyway. Binance Global will be completely unaffected by it and will continue operations as the biggest liquidity provider worldwide. Winning the case will just be extra. Gensler needs to get kicked while he's down. When's that loser going to resign already?

Conclusion

The bull market has started. This landmark case is a huge milestone within the entire crypto industry. Even though XRP is shit, the fact that it is shit actually proves the point of how big a deal this is. How many people thought it was literally impossible for Ripple to win. And yet here we are. Only up.