Direct from the desk of Dane Williams,
exclusive to leofinance.io
Key Takeaways:
- AUD/USD Continues to Face Daily Resistance
- While within a daily bullish trend, the Aussie struggling at confluence of resistance.
- Bias is to only be shorting, but closer to the last daily resistance zone.
AUD/USD Technical Analysis
After tapping the 80c psychological level, the Aussie dollar has struggled to continue printing the bullish gains that traders had gotten used to.
Since tagging the 80c resistance level, AUD/USD subsequently reactivated daily resistance at 78c which gave us a chance to short - A nice trade which we walked through on the blog about a month ago now.
After tucking back below this resistance zone, our bias shifted to only looking to trade the Aussie from the short side and has done nothing to change our mind since.
Just take a look at the daily chart below.
AUD/USD Daily:
Currently you see the Aussie sitting between daily support/resistance zones.
With the last major rejection from a zone being the 78c resistance zone, there's no need to be anything but bearish on the pair.
You can also see that I've drawn this neat looking descending triangle on the daily.
Zoom into a 4 hourly and take a look at the intraday price action that shows why I'd be happy playing for further downside on the pair.
AUD/USD 4 Hourly:
You can see back at the start of April, price poked its head down below triangle support.
A textbook fake-out if ever there was one and a cruel April fool's joke for anyone day trading the break on leverage.
But with only the two 4 hourly candles closing below the level before price pinged back higher, the triangle is still very much valid and in play.
It's for this reason that I'd be holding any shorts that you may still have from the setup at 78c.
Or finding some short term support that when retested as resistance could be used as an entry to re-enter.
Unfortunately I'm flat and will be looking to re-add my AUD/USD shorts using the second scenario if price action allows.
Best of probabilities to you.
Data to Watch Next Week:
- CPI m/m (USD)
- Core CPI m/m (USD)
- Employment Change (AUD
- Unemployment Rate (AUD)
- Core Retail Sales m/m (USD)
- Retail Sales m/m (USD)
Why not leave a comment and share a chart of your own in the comments section below? All comments that add something to the discussion will be upvoted.
This daily market analysis blog is exclusive to leofinance.io.