There is a saying (more of a disclaimer) in the financial world: past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
In a way, charts say more about the past performance of an asset than about its future. But that doesn't stop us from remarking patterns. Whether they lead somewhere or not, or if some send conflicting signals, that's a different deal.
However, I couldn't help but notice this similitude between the bitcoin chart during this and the previous cycle, a few months apart, in relative terms...
If this pattern would repeat this cycle, the bull market would, more or less end in August. I think that would be a first, that's why I have my doubts it would happen quite like that.
Compared to last cycle, we also had a more aggressive BTC, and highly under-performing alts. There are quite a few differences between the two evolutions:
- ATH before halving this cycle
- second top will be considerably higher, where last cycle, they were almost at the same level
- this year it comes much sooner, which makes me wonder if it won't have the strength to keep it up for a longer period, especially since September is right around the corner, when it can cool off
Yeah... despite the similitude, I doubt this cycle will end in August, unless it goes vertical from now to then. Otherwise, I'm still thinking after a serious retrace in September, we will have one final and likely epic push higher. Hopefully, alts will be... there.