When I reached my desk this morning and checked out notifications on my phone as I powered up my laptop and saw Ether +20% and everything else up but not as much, I thought: "This must be something major about spot Ethereum ETFs."
And it is... The SEC seems to have changed the approach on the spot Ethereum ETFs applications from an apparent negative stance to one where they work with the applicants to change their proposals more to their liking. We saw this approach before, for the spot Bitcoin ETFs, and it's a precursor to approving most, if not all the applications that make the changes.
I don't believe given the new twist, that the SEC will reject the proposals. If they wanted to do that, they wouldn't have asked for changed proposals. The only question I still have is when will the approvals come. Will they come this week or the next as I see many expect (more than half, in a contract betting on when the proposal will be approved)? Next month as more expect? Or closer to the fall?
If the spot Ethereum ETFs will be approved it's almost obvious we will have a hot summer in crypto... I would be a little worried if that happened... Not about the trend over the summer, but rather about how long this bull market will be, compared to the previous ones.
After the spot Bitcoin ETFs there were 3 months of strong upward trend. Maybe we would have the same trend length after the spot Ethereum ETFs approvals, maybe not. But normally, the uptrend starts in the fall and goes on into the winter. If the uptrend starts in the summer, will it be strong enough to last to the winter (with its normal drawdowns, of course)? Hard to say, knowing there are other major players in the market now, too.
There are some sayings in the financial markets though, that may be important to remember in times like this:
The trend is your friend.
Don't fight the market. You will lose.
Both of them are true in 99% of cases. But in the 1% of cases, those who do and remain solvent long enough to prove they were right, get something to talk about for years...
There is also the taking profit part which some of us may have ignored in the past, to our detriment. Remember that, when everything will be pumping!
I said before that we will have a boring summer in crypto. But if the spot Ethereum ETFs are approved before that or at the start of the summer, forget about that. There will be fireworks! There already are in expectation of such an event.
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