The big question in any new NFT collection is "What is this really worth right now?" and people have been asking themselves this over Hive Punks lately. If you have been hiding under a rock, Hive Punks is the most recent NFT project on Hive-engine with 10,000 unique Picture For Profile (PFP) images- each randomly generated using a preset combination of traits and characteristics.
With Hive prices going absolutely insane the last few weeks we have seen some radical changes to Hive Punks prices. At first there was a little bit of a dip below minting costs of 20 Hive, but then those prices quickly recovered within days. Soon after though the volatility in the market seemed to take its toll on newer listing prices. People have begun slashing their rates at the mid to low level punk rarities and occasionally one of the higher end punks goes up for mega discount then gets sniped (like punk 8941 bought for 3800 hive, or punk 2867 bought for 2500 hive). The most expensive Hive Punk to date that has been sold went for 5555 Hive (~$4,600 at time), then following that the one that sold for 3800 Hive (~$8000 at time) which was the most expensive in terms of dollars. Overall volumes have been down since Hive prices have spiked.
So how do you spot a bargain and how do you know if you are getting ripped off? Well you can always value the Hive Punk collection price in Hive, rather than dollars, and based off the initial minting price of 20 Hive say that most of the floor punks at 25 are relatively cheap. On the other hand you could look at Hive price going up 250% since minting happened and say that $50 is a little bit overpriced for a floor punk when all punks were minted at around $16.30 or so. Some people did not mint any Hive Punks at all so they have no frame of reference when it comes to prices.
For example, try and pick out the most valuable punk in this image of 24 Hive Punks (answer below):
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How many of you would have picked out this one? You would have to know that "stringy hair" was one of the rare traits that only 83 punks have. The goggles and the clown nose are the next two rarest and the rest are pretty common punks.
If you have been watching the Hive Punks market since day 1 you will have noticed a few trends. Of course many people are pricing their Hive Punks based on rarity alone, as one could expect, but there is much more to the pricing and marketplace. Certain traits have much higher desirability than others, while some get completely overlooked even though they are very rare. In some cases there are specific collectors of certain traits so be aware of who is buying what and for how much!
Now for another example- pick out the most DESIRABLE punk from this lineup
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If you picked the hoodie you were correct! Even though there are 4 rarer punks in the mix they are somehow less desirable because of the way hoodies have become popularized in our crypto culture.
Traits that have shown very high desirability:
- Ultra rare "type" other than humans, zombies and clowns are slightly more common and "affordable"
- Hood of any sort (hoodie, bear hood, frog hood)
- Rare hats/hair with under 100 total number minted (cocktail hat, flowers, crown, Wallstreet bets)
- Mint mistakes where face spots appeared on top of other items
- SUPER rare Easter egg punks like bearded women (few other hidden ones too)
- Anything with a funny name and occupation combo
Traits that look rare but really aren't:
- Most sunglasses (small shades 3.3%, big shades 3.4%, regular shades 3.7%, classic shades 3.4%)
- Eye-mask (3.77% of total punks)
- VR virtual reality (3.5%)
- Nerd glasses (3.1%)
- 3D glasses (3.6%)
- Heart shades (3.7%)
- Any clown eyes (blue, green and purple)
In the future I suspect there will be many different collectors that begin going after certain traits simply because they either already have a good head start on them or they particularly like it. Only time will tell which traits become super popular in the community. Maybe one day a hat collector will come in and want to buy up all the different styles of hats, or a millionaire computer nerd will want to buy all the nerd glasses.
Now let's get down to the meat and potatoes of it: how much should you pay for a Hive Punk and is it really worth it? Well it all depends on your personal budget and what you are really looking for in Hive Punks. If you are looking for a special and unique avatar image for your social media it could cost you a few hundred to a few thousand dollars for one of the ultra rare Hive Punks. If you are satisfied with literally any Hive Punk you can get your hands on then the minimum price you're going to pay is about $50 USD (25 Hive) for the floor punks. The cheaper you go the less fancy or colorful your Hive Punk will be, and possibly the lower the resale value. But one thing is for certain in my opinion: Hive Punks is just getting started and we have a lot of exciting things to come from this decentralized community.
To effectively price your Hive Punk simply look around at the marketplace for similar rarity and traits to know what other people are listing them for. Almost everyone is way overpricing their Hive Punks right now, especially at these Hive token levels. You would have to be watching daily to see the actual amounts they are selling for because the market history is only for 24 hours, but the average hive punk price has been about 60+ hive lately. Of course you aren't going to get that kind of a price on a plain baldie these days but you never know how high that floor will rise going forward. With increased user growth on the Hive network we will certainly see more interest for Hive Punks I would think. It is just a matter of time at this point.
Crypto Punks, the project that started it all on Ethereum, currently has a floor punk price of over $300,000 USD. I'd like to think that anything could happen with Hive Punks if we continue to develop and grow together.
