We are at an interesting moment in the Bitcoin price development, close to the highs shown last Thursday, but with the expectation that generates the Halving that is just around the corner, however, as I have argued above, this BTC cycle could be said to be singular and even atypical due to the new players that through ETFs form an important foundation to take into account in the price development of the world's leading cryptocurrency, so there are various factors that influence especially in the short and medium term of BTC, however, one could say are more positive news than negative.
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GBTC Grayscale
One of the most mentioned ETFs is none other than the largest Bitcoin ETF in existence, paradoxically it is the villain of these last months in the news, however, despite the GBTC share sales the price has reached record highs even before the Halving, so it could be assumed that when GBTC reduces its sales volume, we could witness new record highs, perhaps after news that the market has already assumed, for example, the sale of GBTC shares from the bankrupt company called Genesis.
At the moment of having the information about the sales of the participation of Genesis in GBTC it would result in this point something favourable for the market, because it is a considerable amount, it is 1300 million dollars that are authorized to liquidate by a judicial order, although from my perspective it is a moment where the same market can have a balance as I mentioned in this article.
Decrease in GBTC Sales
One of the factors that may influence the price of bitcoin in the short term is the fact that GBTC sales are slowing, some analysts believe that this is because much of the Genesis stake has already been sold over the month and that sales may be slowing in terms of volume.
Will GBTC sales continue in the short term?
In my humble opinion sales of GBTC shares will continue in the short term, because at least the Genesis position has not been fully covered, even if we look at the GBTC numbers, we will see that more sales are needed to complete the total assets that the defunct company needs to liquidate, to that we can add those investors who are taking profits because the price of BTC is very close to its ATH.
In addition to all of the above, GBTC has a significant disadvantage over its competition, which is high commissions, so it is very likely that if this policy does not change, there is a possibility that many investors will close their positions, although GBTC sales do not directly mean BTC sales, as this stock can be exchanged for bitcoin, however, in the case of Genesis creditors, they may require the cash in large part.
This kind of GBTC volume numbers without information doesn't mean much, because sometimes GBTC drops the volume of its sales, but in the following days the volume increases again, so having some news about the realized sales of Genesis positions would be a positive thing for the market in the short term.
Although the news from Genesis is certainly negative, I think it is a good time to make this type of liquidation because the Bitcoins sold by the creditors of the bankrupt company, may fall into the hands of other ETFs such as BlackRock and thus have a balance that maintains the uptrend before and after the Halving.
Bitcoin Assumes Interest Rates and a Favourable Projection
Another of those aspects that have to improve the BTC price development comes from the FED, because the market assumed that interest rates will remain at 5.5%, however, with a softer speech regarding inflation, investors can be confident that this year 2024, interest rates will fall and can open positions in assets such as Bitcoin which is seen as an attractive alternative to the traditional market. Although I was expecting a slightly more hawkish speech on inflation, this article shows my predictions ahead of the interest rate announcement.
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Within the fundamental analysis aspects, at the moment the Halving as well as what they do in the ETFs will be the main data for the bitcoin projection, however, it is possible that before the Halving we could see further purchases from MicroStrategy that will positively affect the price.
