Here is another journal entry regarding my trading journey. Keeping a diary is healthy on my path as a trader, so here are my thoughts, especially since I'm self-taught and learning by experience. Life is the best teacher and experience speaks louder than words.
Now that Q1 2025 is over, we can conclude that the the long-awaited bull market seems to be MIA, presumed killed in action.
Someone slaughtered the bull this season. Or is there a second leg still to come?
Based on my experience of the past two Bitcoin 4-year cycles, I believe that despite the lagging bull market, there is still time for one more leg up.
Personally, I have done no more trading or adjustments to my portfolio this year. I see that my high risk investments are still down very badly in the red. Nevertheless, I simply hold and wait for the next leg up so that they can reclaim their value and go into profit. Then I can take profit for a change.
This I expect to arrive in coming months, and certainty by October or by the end of this year. By then if the bull has not appeared and prices have not discovered new all time High's, then I'll know that the bull really was slaughtered. Soon after trump came in to power and imposed global tariffs.
Currently the Trump trade tarrifs Look like they may have a short term very negative effect, not only on Cryptocurrency and Bitcoin prices but also on macroeconomic trends and national economies. This short term recession will force the head of the Fed, Jerome Powell, to administer quantitative easing. Trump is forcing his hand. Let's hope it works in coming weeks. At at least in coming months when it's really needed by the system.
Then our bags will experience the altcoin season and next leg of the bull market cycle. There's usually a dip again after May, then another leg up in September and October, into November and December for the final blow off top at new all time highs.
I'm much more reserved at this stage in trading journey, based on past rough ride, extreme volatility, so keen to sell early rather than miss the boat again.
The uncertainty and potential recession makes the market jittery which is bearish. Patience is key now as the bear stretches our endurance. It tests our faith in the plan, the strategy, which for me is time based, built around the Bitcoin 4 year cycle. If that's broken then so it's my strategy.
Alts usually show more volatility or extremes when prices crash, like now. But sadly long term they may never regain their original value, especially compared to Bitcoin. Still I need them to pump so that I can sell in profit.
I refuse to give up hope that the bull will return. Powell must ease and print, as is their usual way. Bitcoin is sadly controlled by the macroeconomic cycle. That's how it seems to me, despite my ideals that it was sovereign. They're all connected and potentially manipulated now.
I'm confident that my next trading diary entry will show a more literal profit, not just hope, because hope is not a strategy.
Bitcoin will pump, but will the alts follow? There is still good tech and fundamentals so the top ones will.
To the moon. The time has come.
Image: https://pixabay.com/photos/donald-trump-president-donald-4371101/
Written and uploaded from my mobile device onto the Hive blockchain for those who are hodlers and traders alike.