Gold has produced two excellent opportunities since Friday, and appears to be setting up for a third.
Watch today’s video for the details, including key levels, intraday imbalances, and why they matter, as well as the latest on the US Dollar Index (DXY).
Gold played out nicely following my last video. In the most recent Weekly Forex Forecast, I noted how XAUUSD had broken its 2025 ascending trend line on the weekly time frame.
We also discussed the buy-side single print at $3,341. Imbalances like these often serve as support or resistance. They can also attract prices as markets attempt to rebalance the area after a sharp move.
Gold filled the $3,341 imbalance on Friday, and again on Monday. Although the price action during this time might appear erratic, it’s actually quite orderly.
Since July started, XAUUSD has moved within a local descending channel. Monday’s retest near $3,340 triggered the selloff toward channel support near $3,287.
We’ve caught the last few moves in the VIP group, and now we’ve another XAUUSD opportunity on the horizon.
Immediate relief seems likely, given Tuesday’s retest of channel support. We also have another buy-side single print, this time at $3,317. Additionally, gold’s six-day composite value area low is at $3,322, which also corresponds to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
I continue to favor lower prices for gold following the recent break of the 2025 trend line. As long as the weekly chart continues to carve lower highs and lows, areas like $3,265 remain open for business.
However, with gold testing its local channel support and the $3,317 imbalance, we could get some relief before the next leg down. The price of gold is $3,297 at the time of this writing.
GBPUSD:
Another example of a comp VAL, this time for GU at 1.3594. Also an obvious resistance area here on the 8h chart.
GU has two SSSPs, one at 1.3509 and the other at 1.3452. The latter is close to the 2025 trend line I posted earlier this morning.
Just remember that the DXY remains below 97.70. That makes shorting pairs like GU a little trickier.