I just read a post by @gungunkrishu with the title of
Hive - Can it go below $0.15 cents? My Strategy Ahead...can I get to 150K+ Hive Power
You can read that post here.
After talking about the current HIVE price slump and explaining their goals for HIVE, the following questions were asked of us, the readers:
Selling Vs HOLD #HIVE? Are you building your stake here on the HIVE platform? What are your thoughts in general for HIVE Power and HBD in savings? Are you stacking up HBD or converting HBD to HIVE? What's your overall strategy for HBD looking like? What are your general thought around the platform #HIVE?
Here are MY answers.
HIVE Price Charts
But first, some data on HIVE prices.
Here is the ALL Time chart from CMC.
One Year Price performance, and All Time High and All Time Low.
Source: https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/hive-blockchain/
Selling Vs HOLD #HIVE?
I have mostly been a HODLer although I have sold now and then over the years when the price was "higher" and I have also bought back when it was lower than I sold it for. I like to be able to support good posts and comments with a somewhat decent UP Vote value so I try to HODL HIVE as Hive Power with a little liquid Hive as SWAP.HIVE on hive-engine for buying fun tokens like #PEPE and others.
Are you building your stake here on the HIVE platform?
I have been here a long time. I was here from day one which was at the moment of the Hard Fork from ST**M. I was on there from 3 months after it launched. My goal has always been to get to Orca status. I defined Orca as having 50K or more effective Hive Power which for me means your own staked Hive into Hive Power minus whatever HP you have delegated.
I just reached this goal in the last few weeks. 😃
So I feel that I am building my stake here on HIVE so I can support good posts and comments.
What are your thoughts in general for HIVE Power and HBD in savings?
I traded some HIVE for a few thousand HBD on the internal market back when it was around 35 cents because I liked the idea of the 20% APR interest on HBD which had been very stable for many many months. At that interest rate it seemed that HBD was a good counterbalance to the volatility of HIVE. I was willing to give up some Up Side Potential in order to earn 20% on a very stable coin and also protect against Down Side Potential.
Then the Witnesses consensus on HBD APR changed from 20% to 15% which is a drop of 25%. Some think that is still a great interest rate, especially compared to what one might earn in a fiat bank account. It is possible to get 4 to 6 percent interest on a high yield savings account or a CD or on cash in a brokerage account, at least here in the US. So HBD interest is 3x that.
I make a different comparison.
Let's compare HBD interest to HP interest.
I see this:
Hive Power increases at an APR of approximately 3.35%
Source: My wallet page on PeakD.
I receive curation rewards at a rate of between 8.5% and 9.5%
Source: hivestats.io
It does take "work" to curate but I've been doing it daily for 99+% of the 8+ years I have been around here, and I enjoy reading posts and UP Voting most of the ones I read. So it's not really work exactly, more of a way to keep up with virtual friends and crypto topics and music and projects on Hive and lifestyles of people from around the world.
So between the 3.35% I receive from just staking HP and the curation rewards which we can estimate at 8.65% - my HP is yielding about 12% APR interest. HP compounds continuously whereas HBD compounds monthly.
12% APR on HP compounded DAILY is 12.747461563% if you do the math. I actually claim my continuously earned curation rewards 4 times a day with a bot I programmed. Doing the math on that, I get 12.74912%.
15% APR on HBD compounded monthly is 16.07545%
Now when HBD was earning 20% interest and compounding monthly we were getting 21.94% compounded annual interest.
We see that at the 20% witness approved rate of HBD interest, we got about a rate about 9.2 higher than what HP got. This was over 72% better than what we got on HP.
Now at HBD interest of 15% we get a rate just 3.33 higher than what HP gets. This is now just 26% better than what we get on HP.
I was willing to turn some HIVE into HBD when it was giving me 72% higher yield in interest than what HP was giving me. I thought that I still had plenty of HP and I felt that there was a pretty good chance of HIVE decreasing in price and I could reverse the trade and go from HBD to HIVE when/if HIVE decreased to end up with even more HP than I started with.
As it turns out, I was right.
I bought back HIVE with HBD and got about 2X as many back as I initially traded for HBD. This strategy allowed me to meet my goal of having over 50K HP for UP Voting your posts.
Are you stacking up HBD or converting HBD to HIVE?
As I just said, I WAS stacking HBD that I bought with HIVE, but then recently I traded HBD for HIVE that was half the price I sold it at.
I still have some HBD left although I have already converted over 80% of it to HIVE.
Now I will mainly stack HBD that I get from author curation rewards and interest. But if HIVE drops below 15 cents then I may trade more HBD for HIVE.
I do NOT Convert! I Trade!
When you convert HBD to HIVE, you are Creating New HIVE! That adds to HIVE Inflation. Not good.
When you trade HBD for HIVE, you are sending your HBD to someone else and they are sending you existing HIVE, at the price you and they agreed upon via the market. No New HIVE is Created!
So use the Market at https://hivehub.dev/market/swap rather than the Convert to HIVE choice under HBD on your Wallet page.
What's your overall strategy for HBD looking like?
If you read this far, you will know. 😜
To summarize, when HBD pays 20% the spread between what I get from HBD is much bigger than when it pays just 15% so I trade HIVE for HBD then if I think I can buy HIVE back for less than its current price.
At 15% which is the current HBD interest I do not think it is worth the risk of missing out on Hive Price INCREASES just to get a slightly bigger APR of interest.
But I do keep some HBD on hand as a hedge against HIVE volatility.
What are your general thought around the platform #hive?
Really, this is something that could take up a whole other post! But I can say that I Like HIVE! 🐝 👍
I am here almost daily for 8+ years. That should indicate something.
I built a 2D virtual world game that has been enjoyed by some of my Hive friends for over 2 years now. it is NOT a web3 blockchain game but it has games in it that give prizes in HIVE, HBD and PEPE. See @metarobots.
I am duplicating a game inside MetaRobots for the #PEPE community. See @pepegame. It is a #TCG Trading Card Game based on Splinterlands but much simpler to learn and play. The testers that have been playing it for a few years now seem to enjoy it. The in-game currency is not on a blockchain but is pegged to HBD.
I give away HBD, HIVE, PEPE and #LOH tokens regularly at @tokenfaucet and all you have to do is comment !TF in its most recent post. Try it out! 🤑 👍
Is HIVE dying?
No it is not dying and it likely never will.
The HIVE community is a niche social media application which is not easy to join or understand but it offers censorship resistance and decentralized governance. There is a small demand for that which is not going away and may increase in the future.
Every day there is a brand new reward pool of HIVE created out of thin air via inflation - the printing of new HIVE. Our max supply is shown as Infinity on CoinMarketCap. See the first image above.
Source: https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/hive-blockchain/
The expectation was that as HIVE becomes more popular, more and more people will buy HIVE for the Resource Credits one gets from staked Hive (HP) and needs to perform operations on the blockchain like posting, commenting, and voting. This buying would offset the creation of new HIVE tokens so the new supply would be soaked up by demand.
This DOES happen, but rarely. It happens when people rush into HIVE due to a price pump or a new game. #Splinterlands is a great example, and we hope for a rebound of that game as well as the introduction of new ones such as @holozing. We have several other games that people play and like but they haven't had the huge effect of Splinterlands (yet).
Generally the price of HIVE drops over time due to this daily inflation due to the creation of new HIVE tokens from nothing, used to pay witnesses, interest on HP, author rewards and curation rewards. This causes some to Leave HIVE.
But guess what that does?
With less people here, posting less articles and comments, the SAME number of HIVE tokens in the reward pool is divided among a SMALLER set of new content. This gives a bit MORE Hive and HBD reward to those who stick around!
I think this helps to keep the core group of people who like HIVE coming back day after day. It is not a major reason since many many not have even thought of this aspect. Most core people like the community here and/or the ability to document their life and ideas on a decentralized censorship resistant and possibly permanent blockchain. The blockchain will be here for as long as witnesses run nodes. And even if they all go away, someone could make a local copy of all the HIVE content and put it online on their own website. Things written on the internet don't easily go away, for better or for worse. See The Wayback Machine at https://web.archive.org/ for example.
So my bet is that HIVE will be here for a long long time.
It may grow. We have new things happening all the time. New games. New technology like the EVM abilities and advanced smart contracts that @@@vsc.network has launched and is testing. New ways to get the word out about HIVE.
It may not grow. But it has a core of people who like it and who have been here almost daily for many years. That is the core of a solid niche community which can pass the test of time.
It could shrink. People could drift away but that leaves a bigger slice of the daily reward pie for everyone else. Regulations could drive away some users and witnesses but Hive is global so others from less regulated places could replace some of those forced out. Hive could face competition from a similar blockchain based social media application. Others have tried to join this space but everyone I know of has not had success. Twitter/X could so something similar to what we do. There is a pretty good chance of that actually, in my opinion. But that might end up binging people TO HIVE due to our Long History and unique competitive advantages. If the number of people using blockchain based social media app increases, surely some of the new people will find us and like what we have here.
THE END
of this post, but Never the End of HIVE!!!
BURN HIVE?
One more thing...
I have changed my Beneficiaries to include 5% sent to null.
I think burning some of my author rewards will slightly reduce the HIVE supply. I think a lower supply, demand being equal, generally leads to a higher price.
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supply_and_demand
What do You think?
Will you join me in burning some of your author reward?
On Leo, click the Edit Beneficiaries button and add null before you click Publish.
