No one knows for sure. For me, I’ve been consistently hitting my stops lately. That was why I decided to write this post. I want to review the current market situation and ask you, guys, for your opinion. Rest assured that for all my trades, I know I am accountable.
Looking back at the chart of $TOTAL, the peak last November 10 produced a 2nd bearish divergence suggesting a maturing bull run. At that time, I should have been trading less and more cautiously. However, around that time, some metaverse coins including $HIVE were still rallying, and I am pretty sure traders were still able to capture some sizeable gains. However, the price action of non-metaverse coins aside from $LUNA (and other strong coins) has been choppy with more pull backs than up days. Last December 4, $TOTAL went below $2T whereas Bitcoin went to $42,000, down 22% from the previous day.
I have been trying to catch a bounce lately, but, sadly, I can’t get a good trade these past few days. Pull-backs have been sharp compared to the bounce. Also, bullish divergences are not yet present for Bitcoin ($BTC) and Total for daily and 4H charts.
CHART ANALYSIS OF MAJOR COINS AND MARKET LEADERS
BTC
$BTC price action has been weaker than the total crypto market. $BTC is below EMA 200 and EMA 20 had already crossed below EMA 100. This does not bode well for crypto granddaddy.
ETH
$ETH, on the other hand, had been stronger than $BTC recently as it was able to resist a drop from the 100-day EMA. EMAs 20-50-100-200 are all still aligned for ETH. However, a rally still seems unlikely. Although, a very weak bullish divergence is already present on the daily chart.
HIVE
$HIVE is one of the market leaders during this metaverse season. It broke out of a larger cup-with-handle than the total crypto market cap. After breaking out of $1.17, $HIVE tripled its value and peaked at $3.41 last November 26. It is now trading at $1.55, 54% below its all-time high. $HIVE does not yet have a bearish divergence and is still above EMA 50. Although it shed more than half of its value, it appears relatively stronger than BTC and ETH. Personally, I believe $HIVE may still bounce back before the year ends. Its uptrend looks like it has just started.
SAND
$SAND was, perhaps, the strongest metaverse issue out there. Same as $HIVE, it has stayed well above EMA 50 during the dip last December 4. My problem with $SAND is that it has already gained 6x since its breakout. Also, it already has four bearish divergences on the daily chart after breaking out. It most probably will consolidate longer before another run.
LUNA
Although not part of the metaverse tokens, $LUNA had been a consistent market leader. It’s a solid DeFi project with strong support from its developers and followers. Two months ago, I planned to dollar cost average (DCA) LUNA, but it’s challenging since I am more used to trading.
$LUNA was one of the very few issues that resisted the drop last December 4. It’s currently hovering at the EMA 20 line. That’s what we call relative strength. $LUNA had already increased its value by 110x this year. It’s somehow scary to buy it now. But in crypto, what’s 110x anyway?
HAVE WE REACHED A PEAK?
Has the crypto-market topped? Well, it depends, of course, on your definition of a peak. In short to medium term, the bull run last year until May 2021 took four bearish divergences on the daily chart to reach its peak. After that, the uptrend ran out of gas and took roughly three months to rally again. We’re still at the 2nd bearish divergence, but it may already be a peak. To be honest, I am not sure, but $TOTAL is already below EMA 100. EMAs are crossing down, which rarely happens on a bounce. Last January to May, the market hovered above EMAs 20 and 50 during its monthly correction. That is not the case today. Based on the technical analysis that I know, now is the time to short and not to long. Christmas may not be Merry for some, but it may be red.
Let me know if you agree. Do you think we have already reached a peak, or are we in for a bounce anytime soon?