What Market Phase are we entering into has been the introductory question for our last appointments. Are we going to listen to the Bulls or the Bears? Are we going to see a Bull Market or a Bear Market?
Welcome to Surfing the Market, we are already at our 35th appointment and I hope that with these easy tech analysis we have helped you in some forms, even just to evaluate different market perspectives.
Analysts had estimated 7.3% inflation rate while the official data released has been 7.1%. USA inflation rate is then lower than expected, bringing some confidence to the market.
Let’s start from our usual weekly perspective
Weekly Chart - Source:Tradingview
“In this “post-FTX-era” we are consolidating on a new price level in the 16500$ area and the volatility dropped. Investors are now cautious both in buying and in selling. Price in the moment has still some chances to raise up a little bit, towards the green line, but we have to see if other exchanges are going to default soon. Voices are running about a potential weakness from Crypto.com and Gate.io. You can read my last content about this topic here”
That’s what I wrote in the three editions of Surfing the Market analysis and as you can see, the price is still solid in that area, volatility is still low and volumes are not much high.
I will keep quoting myself:
“As said before, in my personal opinion Bitcoin price can only drop towards 15000$ if major bad news come up, like a huge electricity crisis, a mobile network crisis or a gas limitation from Russia.”
*Well, in this case, the major event happened but I did not consider the default of a Tier1 Exchange. And more Tier1 now are under the spot-light! *
What do I expect from a daily perspective?
Daily Chart - Source: Tradingview
Orange support is resisting for the moment, even if I do not exclude some fake-breakout during the incoming weekend, where less volumes come into play and the market is potentially more easily orientable. No fake-breakouts but a good rise up in the price!
That is what I wrote last two weeks. We are now quite steadily trading above the 17000$ area.
Screenshot of Dollar Strenght Index
Dollar Strength Index found a strong support in the 104 points area. Stabilization of DXY is usually a potential bullish signal because it represents a consolidation of the market bringing more confidence to buyers and traders.
50MA and 200MA are now closer. 50MA can be acting as a resistance. Anyway, the idea is now observing the daily closure and if it’s above the 17300$ level, we may see further upper movements.
Daily Chart - Source: Tradingview
Ichimoku Clouds have been broken by the price. If the Clouds will be completely trespassed, the Cloud may start acting as a support, launching the next movement.
Daily Chart - Source: Tradingview
Stochastic is confirmed in the overbought area and locally this can lead to a move downwards but during a bullish movement oscillators stay in the overbought area for almost all the trend.
Daily Chart - Source: Tradingview
What to observe particularly?
I was quietly bullish and thanks to the Inflation data, I got some results out. Market cannot be bearish forever so I expect that in the coming months further real bullish movements can happen.
Let me know what you think about this new weekly appointment, and what indicators you would like to be taken into consideration more (or even explained).
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None of what I write can represent a financial advice in any form. So Do your own research before taking any kind of action.