What market phase are we entering into?
Onto the weekly chart, we have seen a break-down of the red supporting trendline.
Trend line has been broken but as we all should know, trendlines are just representing areas of potential support and resistance. The sharper analysis of the supporting/resisting price has to be done with volume analysis. I am still of my idea that we have some room for a potential further dip, especially with the volatility we are observing into the Stock market.
What do I expect from a daily perspective?
Here is a daily chart, where the continuous red and blue lines are still clearly visible.
The two dotted green lines still represent the local upper limit that Bitcoin will need to break up to consolidate and confirm it’s eventual new upward trend.
Anyway, from this daily perspective we see that the breakout happened for the first time with two candle bodies, meaning that this breakdown may seem serious, or a fake breakdown, creating a bear-trap.
So where is the truth? The truth is that volumes are still consistent, meaning that there is the interest of keeping the price ranging in this level of price, and I would avoid strong positions in one or the other way. I am personally waiting for key levels to be broken, trying then to surf the bounce.
What to observe particularly?
38k$ is still a key level that once broken in a more convinced way, it may open lower scenarios, like 33k$ first and 28k$ then.
On a daily perspective anyway, the Stochastic has gained level if compared the the previous week but we are targeting one more time a deep oversold area. The key level is the same of the previous week, with a particular attention to the red line, where the price is heavily knocking right now.
Ichimoky Clouds are into a “bigger cloud area” meaning that in this days, the resistance area will be stronger and more relevant for a potential bounce-down.
Like I said in the last content of “Surfing the Market”, we were entering in a phase where resistance was becoming statistically stronger and potentially harder to break. We are currently seeing a weak downtrend. Keep in mind that weak moves can be anticipation of a strong reversal of the market, to grab small fishes in the net of the institutionals.
Even if I had a confirmation from the daily candle closing below the red line, I am more careful on the evaluation of a long position and I am waiting the before mentioned signals.
Let me know what you think about this new weekly appointment, and what indicators you would like to be taken into consideration more (or even explained).
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