Is Hive's Downside Momentum Slowing? We sure have good signs for it!
A few weeks back I mentioned clear signs that Hive was due for another major leg down and though some of the temporary upswings Hive had made among the altcoin boom period have surprised me, the macro downside picture remained valid. And it materialized - major downside momentum out of our last ascending trading range.
So where are we now? How are the chances of Hive turning around on the macro to the upside?
There are a few good hints that we are getting closer to Hive's bottom. First, we completed the break of the upwards trickling ascending channel with momentum to the downside. We developed another bear flag but instead of more forceful downward follow-through we dropped straight into a descending correction. A really good sign if we are looking for a reversal.
For bears this is a red flag and warrants caution. We may not be at the bottom yet but we are definitely getting closer.
Downside momentum ist clearly slowing down as we are now in a descending channel after the awaited major continuation downwards. As you can see, the descending channel we find ourselves in successfully completed two touches on its upper edge, and two on its lower edge. An ideal entry would be the third touch on its lower channel border, possibly indicating a turnaround.
The buy target for that third touch on the smaller descending would currently be around 0.1250 in USDT, slightly lower the longer the drop delays. It would mark another 15.6% downside value loss before that third touch occurs and we have a decent chance of major upside, at least in the intermediate term.
What else could happen? Well, if BTC gets a major pullback to the low 7000's (which is possible, probably even likely) Hive will not get away with a 'mere' 15% drop in value. The outermost downside target for a buy-in would be the third touch at the descending macro channel, at which point speculating on further downside could only feasibly occur through new valid patterns we don't have yet.
If you feel bearish and want to set a seemingly ridiculous but plausible buy on the macro your target would currently be around 0.0702 USDT. Yes, that's slightly above 7 cent and would mark a value loss of more than 52% from where we are now. Not entirely unlikely if BTC has a 30% drop in the days ahead since alts tend to sell off much more aggressively than their godmarkets BTC and Gold.
Finally we have the Hive-BTC chart which is also in a descending channel inside a bigger macro descending channel. Ideally we would see the smaller descending complete a third touch on its lower end, which would coincide with another lower touch on the macro descending. Since said target is about 10.6% away to the downside from where we are currently, the less aggressive buy-in of 0.1250 USDT mentioned above seems more likely to play out.
However, since price history on Hive is still limited and since BTC is in such a dangerous spot currently, we may find that the larger macro descending on HIVE-BTC simply breaks down to form a bigger structure. If BTC comes down to the low 7000's we may see utter downside insanity in the price of the alts, with Hive being no exception. But where there is crisis there is also opportunity, especially in the longterm. Be ready for downside, I reckon we have weeks maybe months before we start a new sustainable climb in the crypto markets and you wish you had made use of that last drop to below 10 cents when everyone else lost their head in the heat of the moment.
Could I be wrong? Of course!
There is no guarantees here and this article is not intended as financial advice for you to trade. I am merely thinking out loud, talking to myself in writing to keep some notes ;)