I know that many of you like these types of posts (cryptocurrency-related) as I saw comments on my posts where you stated exactly that, so I decided to share my thoughts on the "upcoming" altcoin season... You know that I don't like to make price predictions, promote certain coins, or shill my bags, so if you came here for that, you don't have to bother to read the rest... 🙂
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At the beginning, I will repeat what I said dozens of times (if not hundreds)... Nobody knows where will markets go... Nobody... But, how the heck then everyone on the planet KNOW that we will have an ALTCOIN season in 2025? 😂 Interesting, isn't it... What I like to say to those who KNOW what will happen is... "Why don't you buy tons of XYZ tokens now and you will be rich at the end of the year, if you are THAT sure?"
Anyway, back to the topic... I do have thoughts that history will repeat and I WOULD LIKE to see it happen, but what bothers me the most is... It is too easy! It reminds me of the scene from the movie The Big Short where two guys were bragging about their heft bonuses for selling mortgages to illiquid people, dogs, passed away people... It was too easy to earn that money...
GIF from Tenor.com
Let me tell you something... I remember the late 2017 and the bull run that we had at that time... I was only 6-9 months in crypto, but I was a GENIUS! Whatever I would buy, I would "win"! It's easy to be a genius in the market where EVERYTHING goes up... You can't be wrong... lol... It was easy, but ONLY for those who were convinced that crypto would SURVIVE! We had that HUGE risk in those years as mainstream media was shi**ing over crypto all the time...
Then we had 2021... Another huge year for crypto... It wasn't that easy as the number of tokens grew and MANY of those from the first cycle DIED (don't forget about that)! So, not all tokens were winners at the end of the 2021 cycle, and not many BEAT Bitcoin... We had some misses, but we had a lot of experimenting... DeFi was slowly taking over and I would say that it got its USE CASE in crypto and blockchain... NFTs showed the potential, but most of those attempts were just experimenting... Also, the media pressure was still on, and it wasn't easy from that standpoint...
Let's go back to the present... Yes, we ARE in the crypto bull run... We have to zoom out of the picture... In 2016-2017, BTC went up around 1800%, in 2020-2021 it went up 600%, and from the beginning of 2024 until now, it is already 400% up... The price of BTC is way higher now than it was 8 years ago and to move the price up, you need A LOT more money in the markets... So, those 400% isn't a small number... The mainstream media image of crypto (mostly Bitcoin) indeed changed a lot, and we have more institutional buyers in the market buying BTC... THEY can move the price despite its so high...
How about altcoins? How much did altcoins evolve? On one side, if you were following the news in the last week or so, it didn't evolve too much, but it degraded... lol... Having in-the-spotlight coins like TRUMP, MELANIA, or FARTCOIN doesn't work too well for the altcoins image... 🤣 But, let's be honest, yes, certain altcoins evolved a lot from what we had in the past... Some have strong use cases for specific things, which are being adopted on a larger scale... It's not anymore in an experimental phase but in the WORK phase...
How many tokens are out there today? There is no exact number as new tokens have been created every second!!! I will show you just this...
Screenshot Google.com
Let me remind you that in the last cycle, we had maybe 20-25K tokens in TOTAL! What you see on that screenshot are ONLY the tokens created through the pump.fun website! That's a LOT of tokens... We thought that 20K was a lot as we had our focus spread on dozens of tokens... How about now? 😃 Speaking of focus, it looks like some can keep the focus, which this TRUMP meme token showed... They came to crypto, bought the token, and that's it... Only Solana moved a bit because the meme token was there and people were exchanging SOL, but even that wasn't enough to keep the SOL price up... And the rest of the markets? Crickets...
Let me short down the story...
- We have a lot more (alt)tokens this cycle and money is much more "diluted" among different tokens
- Institutional buyers "can move" the markets, but they don't buy meme coins and ALL EYES are on Bitcoin (maybe just for now, we will see)
- A lot of tokens from the previous cycles have their unlocks, or their tokens being minted from built-in inflation...
- Money (fiat) printing didn't start and that was the biggest catalyst in the last cycle
- etc.
Is there enough money to move the altcoin markets up? Will we have an altcoin season this year?
I would say YES but with one huge BUT... There is no way that ALL tokens will go up, and there is no way that more than 5% of altcoins will go up (look at that screenshot above)... I still believe that the tokens that have VALUE and USE CASE (am I a sucker? 😃) will have their spotlight during the year... How long will the "altcoin season" last and how high they will go? I have no idea, but I doubt that altcoins will beat Bitcoin by a large margin this time...
Will HIVE be in the category of those VALUABLE cryptos with a USE CASE, growing user base, and DEVELOPMENT for the future? That's probably the biggest question of all... I suppose we will find out that soon...
I would like to hear your opinion on this topic... What do you think? Will Bitcoin float all the boats or only his boat? 😃 How much gains do you expect from your "altcoin bags"?
Thank you for your time,
--ph--
PS. None of this is financial advice of any kind...
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