I can't blame, frankly, those who are fearing the worst case scenario for Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. How could anyone blame them, after this disastrous 2022 that cryptos have had? But there are lights, nuances and shadows that we must consider, especially when it comes to Bitcoin.
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2022: A red year for Bitcoin
Although I know perfectly well that 2022 still has 16 days left, I think it is a perfect time to make a balancesheet of what the whole year has been like. Basically, it has been a total disaster, from the strictest analytical sense; Bitcoin has consistently been in a range-and-fall dynamic, which has drove it into a series of prices that are putting off even many maximalists.
The truth is that those who read me frequently know perfectly well that I am neither a maximalist nor a minimalist of Bitcoin or any other cryptocurrency; I just try to be objective and realistic in my technical and fundamental analysis. So no one can accuse me of being a fan or detractor of any specific crypto, because if there is something I always try to avoid, it is extreme positions.
So, speaking from a technical analysis point of view, Bitcoin has bad charts (I mean grim charts and pictures) on almost every possible time frame. To sum it up in a few words, only on a monthly basis does the Bitcoin chart show a silver lining, but if and only if it reaches or exceeds $36k between now and June 2023.
At least that's what indicators such as Ichimoku on the Monthly Chart tell us. But I do not want to discourage you, it is not my intention, because despite the current scenario, the ichimoku indicator also tells us that the next six months (that is, the first half of 2023), will be extremely volatile. Now, that is good or bad news depending whether we know or not how to surf the price waves well, and it invites us to be attentive to everything that happens in that period of time.
Fundamentally, many people are jumping ship on Bitcoin, just as rats jump off a sinking ship at sea. Many people who seemed to have projects and a lot of money invested in Bitcoin are abandoning everything and selling their holdings. Also, if we read the news headlines, we will see many governments warning that what is coming for Bitcoin soon will be serious... But... Hasn't all Bitcoin's history been riddled with FUD since its inception?
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What I really think, despite the despites
Despite the current state of the Bitcoin market and cryptocurrencies in general, I am objectively optimistic about what is to come for Bitcoin, and this is so for many reasons. First of all, the next Bitcoin hard fork (the halving) is scheduled for 2024, so traditionally speaking, Bitcoin rises in price in such scenarios, with that said, we should have no problem seeing Bitcoin in an uptrend before May 2024.
Second, the technology behind Bitcoin, and what Bitcoin represents as a means of payment, ensures that the whales won't just let it die.
Third, we are in a whale accumulation cycle. So if anyone has money invested in Bitcoin, it's the whales; so we need to ask ourselves… Will the whales let Bitcoin go eternally into a tailspin? Would that be smart from the point of view of your personal interests? I think the question answers itself, that is, of course the whales won't allow it.
Think about it for a minute… If you are, for example, a whale with $100 million invested in Bitcoin, is it in your best interest to let the Bitcoin market go into a tailspin forever? Would you be interested in such a case to let the price of Bitcoin go down completely and nobody wants to invest more Bitcoin?
But of course not... The whales may be many things, but they are not stupid, they know that Bitcoin has great bottom potential and that it is also undervalued at the price level; They are also aware that if Bitcoin does not start to rise in price from one moment to the next, they will have a more difficult time recovering what they invested, because as people lose confidence by the bearish scenario of Bitcoin (which has been so long this year), the greater will be the efforts that they will have to make so that said people have confidence in the market again and dare to invest in Bitcoin again.
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Basically, Bitcoin is at the moment alike a hot potato, the whales have it, and they are accumulating it, but they know that they must start the process that creates the uptrend soon; in order to start, in future, distributing at the prices that they have programmed.
But as I have explained before, having a bearish cycle as pronounced and long as the one we are currently experiencing in Bitcoin, has a positive side; Which is that it will make the uptrend also prolonged for long, which will make everything that we have lost in 2023 easy to recover along the way. At least, that's the way I see it.
Summary
Well, this post may not be liked by many, but luckily, at HIVE we have real freedom to express our opinions in any way and on any topic, so I don't worry about pleasing anyone through my writing.
What I do is a serious reflection, free from fanaticism, about the future landscape for Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. Basically, without being blind optimists, the outlook is encouraging, although it is true that the Bitcoin price has had to go through an extremely tortuous year and there are still some months of uncertainty or extreme volatility ahead, that is what I tkink about it.
Also, what I think you have to do in light of all of the above, is not to lose hope, not to lose your nerves and not to lose patience; but above all, do not to take our eyes off the market. Earning opportunities will come, but only those with their eyes wide open will know how to take advantage of them.
What do you think about the topic discussed? Please comment.
Gif created by @piensocrates