I've noticed a slight flaw in the 'Cub to Moon following IDO launch and Burn' logic going around recently....
The flaw is this:
If most of us are expecting a huge increase in the Cub price following a burn then most of us are likely to hold onto to most of our Cub.
Thus we're all expecting 'some other mug' to burn all their precious Cub in order to get hold of those new high-risk tokens and we're hoping to free-load on the back of that mass burning.
That's the same mass-burning of Cub that won't happen because we're all holding our Cub waiting for other people to burn theirs...
I mean it's a tough sell - take your Cub out of the 80% stable return pool and risk it on this new unknown token.
Unless...
That new first IDO-token is something REALLY special - like maybe linked to Governance or something to do with Splinterlands, it HAS to be something that's REALLY attractive.
I MEAN IT HAS TO BE REALLY GOBSMACKING 'WOW' THAT'S DIFFERENT I NEED THIS!
If it's just yet another 'stake-me-for-a-70%-return-here-and-that's-all-I-ever-do' coin' I won't be buying it and I can't see why anyone else would either.
And also, I won't be buying anything JUST because it's on Polygon, that's not particularly exciting either. Doing that already.
If said IDO isn't really special aren't all of us Cub faithful are just gonna hold, and that means no Burn.
Unless we're expecting newbies to buy it, but there's no evidence that's going to happen either based on past performance....?
Maybe that's where the Burn is supposed to come from - new people gradually finding their way to the new token(s)...?
But it's going to have to be SPECIAL to tempt me away from the Cub Kingdom offering me an 80% return AND with the potential of an increasing price... I mean any new IDO-farm has to be well over 100%, WELL OVER, given that that 80% seems pretty stable on the Cub Kingdom.
Having said that
When I say I won't be buying, of course I'll have a 100 Cub punt probably on each of the three IDOs, but that's PUNT money, it's not 'let's pile in and burn 50% of the supply' thinking.
I just don't see where the demand for the burn is going to come from.
Unless you're someone who is going to be piling into the IDOs with half their Cub stack or more?
NB: My Brain thing is slightly limited when it comes to these things
But of course I might have this wrong and these new IDOs cou pull in monies from all over the Crypto space and/ or if some people on here are going to punt hundreds of thousands of Cub or other resources on these new IDOs I'll HAPPILY be proved wrong and enjoy my Cub Moon, but most of that will be enjoyed from the cosy-wrap of the Cub Kingdom, for now!