Since announcing I was powering "down and out" on the Steem blockchain, @roleerob has been on an "adventure!" Including trying my hand at a bit of trading, which is way outside both my comfort zone and experience base.
"How is that working out for you?"
Thought you'd never ask ...š
Let's take a closer look at how one success led to the decision to try it again. And, with some nice success "under my belt," whether I will continue to "gamble" ...
"Macro" vs. "Micro" Trading
What are you talking about @roleerob? Never heard of it ...
Well, neither have I! š I just made it up, as it just seemed like the best way to express what I did, in my view. I touch on this a bit more in the next section of this post. For now, dear reader, please accept my use of the word "macro" in describing the "trading" a did.
Here is what has happened, leading to the writing of this post:
"Round 1"
With the news of the pending creation of the Hive blockchain, about 72 hours in advance of carrying it out, I bought some additional Steem and moved it into my wallet. A "macro" move was underway! My intention was to turn around and sell it, on the "other side" of the hard fork. To try and recoup some of my investment losses incurred by the "bright idea" of owning Steem in the first place ...
- Good News: It worked pretty well, although I had not factored in the time delay of getting the new blockchain up and running and its effect on Steem. As a result, there was an unavoidable several-hour delay, during which time I watched the price change a lot (against me ...).
- Bad News: Finally getting my Steem transferred to my Bittrex account, I was stunned to realize, in my inexperience, that Bittrex was also impacted by the hard fork! A "rookie" noob mistake ... And another week went by, while I waited ... š
Bottom line" While I still did relatively okay, I lost a chunk of my "dry powder," in the process. Overall, with the added value of the new Hive tokens, I gained a fair amount, but definitely not a "double."
"Round 2"
When the news hit toward the end of April, of the newly created Hive blockchain being listed on Huobi , I elected to move both the liquid HIVE and HBD I had left over, from "Round 1," to Bittrex. And exchange for BTC and ETH. With both the looming "pump" in BTC price, as well as the almost inevitable "dump" of HIVE, when the "dust settled" from the Huobi news, I thought it might be a good idea. "Macro" influences were in play again!
- Good News: While I had several opportunities to "misfire," I held off and relied upon my limit prices for converting BTC back to HIVE. Being patient was the key. š Never my strong suit, I am at least a bit more patient, at this stage of my life.
- Bad News: My biggest "misfire" was in exchanging my HIVE and HBD much too quickly. While I had managed to exchange when the prices were nearly double what they had been, prior to the Huobi listing news, they went much higher from there! š
Bottom line: I did ultimately double the amount of liquid HIVE I had, prior to the Huobi listing. More of a "moral victory" than anything, as I did not have "life transforming" amounts of liquid Hive, to commit to the "experiment" ...
Overall, in his long professional career, @roleerob is a "make things happen" sort of a guy. Although now retired, these experiences gave me enough encouragement and motivation, to try my final "play."
"Round 3"
From my experience, powering down on the Steem blockchain was going to result in having far more liquid funds than ever. Up to that time, as written elsewhere, I was a "good soldier" and never "powered down," as the "choir" was always "singing" that this was a sign of bad faith (while "they" did it all the time ...)!
Okay ...
Simply converting across to Hive was the "Easy Button" solution to this, as time is always a problem for me. I did not want to have to "babysit" too much. In the end, I decided I would choose some "set and forget" limit buy prices and go on with my life. While waiting for my 4-week (post HF23 ...) Steem powerdowns to complete, I found this post from @azircon, to be helpful!
Here is what I ended up with, in satoshis, for my limit buy set points:
Source: @roleerob's "macro" trade spreadsheet
Setting these up in Bittrex was simple. I had the added benefit of their "promotion" (trying to compete with Binance?) of "credits," i.e. no cost exchanges! I only needed to take care to set up the limit buy correctly, to take advantage of them.
I had all of my STEEM out by the end of June. How long did I have to wait to see if this was all going to work?
Source: Order History in @roleerob's Bittrex account
Almost a month! And yet, once BTC began to "move," all 5 limit buys were executed in an incredible 1-Ā½ days. Just had to be patient!
Here are the highlights, of this experience:
- The "macro" data, driving my decision - pricing of the 3 tokens, at COB on Monday, May 25th - HIVE: $0.271564, STEEM: $0.203572, BTC: $8,904.39, plus ETH: $204.68. As soon as each STEEM powerdown was complete, I immediately transferred it to Bittrex and exchanged for mostly BTC and some ETH.
- Rather than "settle" for the Steem to Hive these numbers suggest, I have managed pretty much a 1:1 exchange, from Steem to Hive.
- All while still having some BTC (0.0176) and ETH (0.7393) left over. At considerably higher prices! Yes, we "win"!!
While I am unlikely to give up this last benefit of this experience, given my overall view of Hive, I may yet be tempted to buy more again, if the price drops down into the range of say ... ohhh ... 1500 satoshis or, especially, 1000 satoshis.
As I have written about recently, the decision from here is what to do now with this 5,000 HIVE. Well, for one thing, I will not being powering it all up! I want to keep some liquid resources, as I continue the "discovery phase" of my new adventure into the "second layer" communities here on our Hive blockchain.
As part of that, I have already reached an objective listed in my last post:
@roleerob is now a LEO
dolphin Orca!
My thanks to @trumpman, who left a comment on my last post, which led to an exchange in the
Man Cave with @taskmaster4450. Who then, as a result, wrote this great post about exactly what goes in to the determination of whether we are a dolphin or an orca or a whale! in LEO.
Source: @roleerob's PeakD wallet
Given the very favorable impression left by @steem.leo / @khaleelkazi's recent "LeoFinance 2020 Roadmap" post, I will almost certainly invest into being a LEO whale in the next little while.
For one thing, in days, LeoFinance is getting a brand new UI, "from the ground up!" š Yes!! š
Also, @raymondspeaks is perhaps a month or two away from announcing "Phase Two" of his plans for the BRO token, at which point we may see him execute his 2nd release of them, with a set price of 3X HIVE!
Gambling vs. Trading
While I have never invested any time and money in them myself, I am aware of many professional trading courses. And those who, having once been educated, make a profession out of trading. Or at least a "hobby" of it ... š Prior to the "cryptosphere" even coming into existence, they were referred to as "day traders." I have no idea whether that label is still used or if something new has replaced it.
While I have no experience with trading (except for what I have covered above ...), I do have some limited experience in gambling. Is there any difference between trading and gambling? Pure chance based on a "roll of the dice?"
Having done enough of the opposite earlier in life to last me from "here on out," I try very hard to be brutally honest and not fall into delusion. While I am sure there are those who would passionately argue with me, based on the "science" of all of the "trader's toolkit" skills of charting and the like, I see very little difference.
To be sure, there are prudent steps to take to minimize the risk. Thereby "increasing the odds" in your favor, etc. Yes, well there are also those who study the mathematical odds of gambling, e.g. card counting, etc.
- Quick story: In the 1980s, traveling regularly into Nevada, during its modern day "gold rush," I had my first exposure to the opportunity to gamble. A "win" was one long night spent at an old casino in downtown Las Vegas, at the side of an elderly black gentlemen, who knew playing craps inside and out. The outcome? A pair of tickets to see a "hot" show the next night!
A couple of weeks later, in a small town further north, I once again spent an evening at a craps table. To apply my now "sure thing" experience base to winning some more! The result?
I lost about
$75! š„
Yeah, yeah, I know. That is not a lot of money (although $75 went a lot further in those days!), but it taught me a valuable lesson. I work(ed) too hard for my money to throw it away. I have never gambled since. Not one time!
With my "macro" trading experience now established, what will I do in the future? š¤·āā š
Closing
With this "success" now behind me, I am enjoying a little "afterglow" truthfully, but ... "This ain't my first rodeo," so I will not allow it to cloud my judgment. From now on, I do intend to maintain some liquid assets and not allow myself to ever again be in a position where I can't "move quickly," should some opportunity arise.
Who knows? There may once again be a set of "macro indicators" some day, which seem to increase the odds enough in my favor to "roll the dice" and try this again. It is very unlikely, however, that will ever be the "rule" rather than the "exception" it was this time around.
Iād love to hear any feedback you may be inspired to provide.
Until "next time," all the best to you for a better tomorrow, as we all work together to build up our Hive Communities and add increasing value to our Hive blockchain! š š
Respectfully,
Hive Blogger & Man Cave "Dragon" @roleerob
š šÆ š
š² No trees were harmed in the publishing of this post! š²
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