Ever since our big drop on the 18th June Bitcoin has been grinding its way up with a bullish market structure creating higher highs and higher lows. And today we bounced on the top of this channel producing bullish divergences on the cvd.
As you can see here we have a higher high on the price with a lower high on the cvd.
In addition to this there is no selling tail on the recent high (on the TPO chart), making it likely to get taken out. Today's low on the other hand produced a small buying tail (denoted as BT 23562 - 23612 inside the green box).
You could even start to make the argument that we are still in a bull market until this trend line is broken and retested, confirming it as resistance.
Personally I am in a long position since making this observation around lunchtime today, but I also hold a short position from higher, just in case I am wrong. Because at the end of the day no one knows with 100% certainty what is going to happen. The most professional way to trade is using multiple accounts from which you look for shorts at the top of the range or channel and longs at the bottom. Be sure to take profits when the trade is going your way and then just let the rest run. Only in this way can we be indifferent about the ultimate direction bitcoin chooses to take.
Should we move up from here the biggest resistance is this 30k area where we have an untapped weekly level, the bottom of the HTF range value area and the 0.236 retracement of the entire downtrend.
Should we move down from here the first area of interest for me as support is the value area high (VAH) of this range. If this doesn't hold and we find ourselves back in the range we can look down to the POC. Failing that we have strong support in the 19-20k region where we have value area low (VAL), an untapped monthly & daily, the unbroken HTF trendline and the CC (0.618 - 0.66) of the full move since June.
Let me know if you like these kind of updates.
Would be happy to provide more of them if someone out there finds them useful.