There may be trouble ahead ...
Environment
2022 was a tricky year all round, following two previous difficult years. A global recession is expected (or already started depending on your point of view). Locally (UK), there is increasing inflation, a shrinking economy and a weak government.
Supply chain problems and labour market shortages are set to continue, due to global, European and UK challenges. Britain lost 600,000 people from the labour market due to early retirement or long-term sickness, exacerbated by Brexit removing EU economic migrants. China is in disarray following the decision to remove all COVID restrictions with immediate effect. The war in Ukraine continues, although there have started to be proposals for peace talks.
On the plus side, the UK has strong public sector union action with the potential combined benefits of maintaining incomes, protecting public services and, crucially, forcing a weak government to focus. Michael Gove, love him or hate him, is at the Department of Housing, Levelling Up and Communities (DHLUC) and otherwise maintaining a not my circus, not my monkeys stance. Some of our regional Mayors have progressive ideas. We've also seen global wholesale gas and oil prices drop.
Crypto-wise, it's not been a great year either - again depending on your point of view. Bitcoin has been crashing around, and there were major scandals with Luna, Celsius and FTX. On the one hand, this is all bad news for crypto, on the other hand, poor actors are being removed and lower points of entry mean increased access for more people.
In the UK, 2023 is expected to be much the same as 2022, which is pretty harsh at the moment, especially for the poorest and most disadvantaged, although some forecasters are predicting that the recession will be shallower than previously expected, with improved conditions in the second half of the year. In the crypto-verse, I expect to see prices continuing to fall until sometime in 2024 and then start to increase in 2025. This is a great time for accumulation.
Personal Goals
I'm continuing to work, probably for another 24-36 months, but with gradually reducing hours during that time. We've just submitted for a three year project which, if successful, will create major change and the work that I do will be in really great shape to handover to someone else (we'll still get there without the additional funding, but more slowly).
I've started a long term creative project which will run alongside paid work and, as I reduce working hours, I will spend more time on this, aiming to start a masters in fine art in the next two or three years. I'm also working towards getting my house upgraded in the next twelve months: plans and specifications are ready and builders are being invited to tender this week. The final timetable will depend on when the builder is able to do it.
In terms of exposure, I've reduced debt and built an emergency fund over the past two years. The work on the house is a form of future proofing: creating a house which is ready for the next twenty years, comfortable to live in, and adapted for environmental changes ie more efficient energy use, passive heating and cooling, and increased shading, especially at the front of the house.
Crypto Goals
I aim to achieve 100,000 HIVE POWER over the next twelve months with the following ambitions:
- continue to vote as an Orca.
- delegate the remainder to other projects and enterprises that enhance Hive.
- build Saturday Savers Club to support the EDS savings and income token.
- draw an income from HIVE as prices start to rise in 2024-2025.
Options for Reaching 100k HP
I looked at several options for increasing HIVE POWER, taking into account passive income (roughly 300 HIVE a month over the year) and assuming 12% for combined curation and inflation.
| Option | Deposit pcm | Deposit pa | Interest pa | Total HP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Maintain current activity | 367 | 4,418 | 9,762 | 89,175 |
| 2. Increase posting | 500 | 6,000 | 9,853 | 90,853 |
| 3. Increase posting + DCA | 1221 | 14,655 | 10,345 | 100,000 |
| 4. Maintain + DCA | 367 | 13,559 | 10,922 | 99,482 |
I used a compound interest calculator to forecast year end totals.
I'm going for Option 4 - maintaining my current posting activity (fits with my life-style and goals) and DCA-ing HIVE through the year, as early as possible. This will depend on the price of HIVE - I'll accumulate a lot faster if the price drops. I've not calculated everything into this - for example, passive income streams will continue to increase. However, it gives me a starting place.
Looking Ahead to 2024
For fun, I looked at what 2024 might look like, when I've achieved my 100,000HP:
That will be nice!
