Hey guys 2023 is finally here and I I thing that the main things that we are going to be talking are energy/inflation/recession
China opening is bullish for demand and will send energy commodities higher that means Higher inflation in the US.
Just as we head into a recession you typically get this move up in commodity markets then once recession hits demand takes a hit and then sends them back down.
Thinking about China first I think it has legs as a narrative but is the number of people in china with Covid true?– Its astounding and this could hinder the demand… If everyone is sick and lives are being lost I suspect many wont return to normal life. This also increases the risk of them having to go back into a lockdown type situation.
I’m kinda like… well we’re kinda already here aren’t we? Recession I mean. And we’ve already seen a huge run up in energy in particular so when is this late cycle big up move from commodities going to come from?
political situations its just out of control and so unpredictable.
I believe that while putin and Russia are telling the world that they are ready for peace negotiations that won’t happen unless putin reaches a dead end and loose the support he has which is extremely difficult and if that happens I am not sure of the outcome. This war is more and more about the survival of putin than anything else. That means that we will probably reach an embargo on natural gas that will skyrocket the prices and increase more inflation and create a recession in the world economy