About a year ago, I was the crazy Blockchain guy at the company, among the very few I spoke to about it. A few moments ago, a popup through Teams came through from one of the few;
"should I buy bitcoin? I read rumors that its value is gonna go up in a couple of months because of supply halving."
Well, it is up 300% since I mentioned it to him last year. However, better late than never. Perhaps. Being "late" isn't a bad thing - except when no one wants a baby. Being late into investing into an industry only feels that way relative to when one invests, where we are likely in the Crypto and blockchain lifecycle now, this is early. It only feel late when we look at the perspective of those who came before us even earlier.
Investing early obviously comes with risks of various kinds as there is always uncertainty and volatility in the formative stages, due to uncertainty and a lack of standardization. Over time as more participants come in, stabilization and habits start to set in to create patterns.
When it comes to investing into Steem for example, there are many people who used to say, "but you were here for 7 cent Steem" without understanding that at that time, things were very uncertain. At least for those who were looking to invest, something I didn't even know how to do at the time. It isn't easy for people to part with what they have and can hold in their wallet and put it into something that may or may not exist in the near future.
I know for me, my journey through Steem would have likely been somewhat different if I has rustled up 1000 dollars and bought 14000 Steem on my 2017 birthday, the Steem All Time Low. I had no idea at the time and I know, the 1000 I would have had went to specialized baby formula every month.
But, how many people bought Steem at 10 cents recently, 12? There is a hundred million Steem thereabout on the markets and has been for a very long time. Two years from now, how many are going to hear, "but you were here in 2019 for 10 cent Steem."
Now my colleague speaks of things to come, as while he didn't buy when I mentioned it to him, his awareness of the markets has obviously developed to the point that news like the Bitcoin halving is creeping into his view. This is happening at a global level of course with more and more people getting crypto-curious.
For instance, my other colleague I wrote about the other day about investing mentioned to me, that when they saw the wealth manager at his bank, he asked "Why wouldn't I just go all in on crypto?" and the manager laughed loudly. And then proceeded to put his investment into an equity portfolio that offered 4% a year. Yes…. 4.
What is he going to do with that?
Also, when he asked about the graph of the equities market that just keeps climbing and whether or not there is a crash coming, the wealth manager didn't give a clear answer.
He is a good friend of mine, so I said to him to take 1000€ and throw it into the crypto pool and play. 10,000 dollars invested at 4% is 400€ a year, and then there are fees. 1000 into Bitcoin over the last year would have returned 2000€. Yes, it is a risk, but it is a calculated risk.
When it comes to investing, the floor is always known. Zero. My friend will know at the point he invests exactly how much downside he is exposed to. However, he has no understanding of how much upside. When it comes to investing, it is very difficult to understand the percentages that we are talking about in crypto.
Steem is currently 22 cents, that is 37x down from the All Time High. For my friend to get his 4% - it doesn't even have to go to 23 cents. If it goes to 2.20, a process that can happen in as little as 4-6 weeks to Steem, that would be a 1000% increase in value. 1000 in, 10,000 out.
This is insane, of course and won't last as the industry matures and standardizes, but for now, small amounts can add up to very large percentage differences. Would it be life changing for my friend? Not at all. However, it would be a pretty good indication of the potential of the market and perhaps he would take some profits and let a few thousand ride.
Funnily enough, based on the reaction of the wealth manager to the mention of investing into crypto, he is now more interested than ever. And as I mentioned to him, it is less than a weeks work that he stands to lose.
Perhaps this is a good way to look at investing fiat into crypto. Rather than the amount of money, look at the time spent on earning, as at that point, there is no money involved. Would you do a week of work for free if there was the potential to earn 10,000 on it? This means that the 1000 for that week has already been removed from the pool of available resources.
And like I just said to my colleague a moment ago - Do not invest anything you aren't willing to lose completely. This way, the entire downside is already known and already accepted as lost.
It is pretty cool that people are starting to pay attention to what is going on in the crypto industry and their curiosity keeps increasing. When it comes to mainstreaming, curiosity plays a massive role in how willing people are to participate, and while many will start from the financial perspective as that is what most worry about in life - their interests will spread, especially when they explore what else they can do with the digital currencies they hold.
The Crypto-curious are coming.
Taraz
[ a Steem original ]
