Sam Altman released a blog post titled The Intelligence Age.
Like most of Altman's posts, similar to Vitalik Buterin, this is getting a lot of attention. There are some who follow along with his thinking while others are out there attacking it.
To me, this is an opportunity for us to see what one of the leading AI builders is thinking and how we can counter balance it. We have to always be aware, especially when it comes to Altman, he wants as much of this future under his control as possible.
For this reason, we have to use this as a warning. To simply deny that what he is saying will not happen is a risk we should not be willing to take.
This is especially true in light of the fact that he isn't really saying anything completely novel.
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The Intelligence Age
Altman is referring to the period we are entering as the Intelligence Age. This is no different than, looking back, we saw the advent of the Industrial Age. One main difference is we are becoming aware of it as it occurs. In the past, we named these epochs in hindsight. That made sense since we were dealing with transitions that took decades.
We have a different animal here. This is what Altman goes into.
It won’t happen all at once, but we’ll soon be able to work with AI that helps us accomplish much more than we ever could without AI; eventually we can each have a personal AI team, full of virtual experts in different areas, working together to create almost anything we can imagine. Our children will have virtual tutors who can provide personalized instruction in any subject, in any language, and at whatever pace they need. We can imagine similar ideas for better healthcare, the ability to create any kind of software someone can imagine, and much more.
Again, this is something that was discussed by many people involved with technology. We regularly mention the idea of AI agents and how that is the next "Internet" will be the connecting of billions of AI agents together.
What caught the attention of some is the time frame Altman placed on superintelligence.
Before getting to that, he did not exactly define what it is. Here is where many have issues with a lot of technology forecasts: there are no clear definitions.
Nevertheless, here is what he wrote:
This may turn out to be the most consequential fact about all of history so far. It is possible that we will have superintelligence in a few thousand days (!); it may take longer, but I’m confident we’ll get there.
A few thousand days?
To start, that is an interesting way of phrasing it. If we do some simple math, we see that 3,000 days is roughly 8 years.
In other words, Altman is placing some probability that we will have superintelligence within 10 years. That should be an eye-opener.
Even if he is off by a few years, the key is we do not go from nothing to that. There is a progression meaning, once again, things are ramping up very quickly.
AI models will soon serve as autonomous personal assistants who carry out specific tasks on our behalf like coordinating medical care on your behalf. At some point further down the road, AI systems are going to get so good that they help us make better next-generation systems and make scientific progress across the board.
Technology brought us from the Stone Age to the Agricultural Age and then to the Industrial Age. From here, the path to the Intelligence Age is paved with compute, energy, and human will.
Web 3.0 And The 4th Industrial Revolution
What Altman is referring to is often described as the 4th Industrial Revolution. This is an idea that we are going to see economic productivity altered in a way that mirrors previous generations.
To me, this is a given, i.e. beyond debate.
It is going to happen. What we need to question is how it takes place and what it looks like. Here is where we see many variations.
While many fear The Terminator scenario, this appears to not be the issue. There is, however, a bigger threat that we have to be very mindful of.
Technology is getting more powerful. The biggest threat to humanity is not likely AI destroying it but, rather, the power in the hands of a few entities. This includes the likes of Sam Altman.
It is here where Web 3.0 enters.
For some reason, even those involved in Web 3.0 ignore what is taking place. We cover this repeatedly in this articles, hoping to provide a wake up call.
Altman's view is the wonderful benefits provided to humanity by superintelligence should only happen due to the graciousness of someone like him. He is seeking to have all these capabilities in the hands of a few major corporations.
Once again, does that sound like a future that is appealing to you?
If we want to put AI into the hands of as many people as possible, we need to drive down the cost of compute and make it abundant (which requires lots of energy and chips). If we don’t build enough infrastructure, AI will be a very limited resource that wars get fought over and that becomes mostly a tool for rich people.
He is right about this. Of course, who is going to build out and, more importantly, control what is available?
We know the answer.
Do not quibble over some of the particulars you might disagree with in Altman's article. The general direction is accurate. He might be off by a few years in his forecast. However, the line of thinking exhibited here is commonplace in every major technology company dealing with AI.
They believe in the tremendous benefits as long as they are the ones at the helm. For this to happen, they need everyone to keep feeding them the data. Without that, they are up the proverbial creek without a paddle.
We are going to reach The Intelligence Age. What is uncertain is how it will look when we get there.
Is humanity going to sign up for another epoch of slavery?