The disruption of transportation is enormous. Most of us do not ponder the tentacles of this industry.
What we are seeing is going to ripple throughout all of society. It will take a decade for this to unfold. That said, the impact will be felt for decades.
The obvious conclusion about electric robotaxis is to consider the impact on ICE vehicles. This is logical but only looking at the surface level. If we delve a couple of layers down, we see massive impacts.
How about mass transit? This is something that we take for granted especially in major cities. For the last century, subways and buses were the norm. It is to the point now that we do not even consider them. They simply are part of the landscape.
In this article we will discuss how this is going to end.
Autonomous Taxis: The Death of Trains and Buses
Subways cannot compete. Neither can buses. This is the economic reality.
When it comes to costs, mass transit is subsidized. Ultimately, they end up losing money. Few systems turn a profit. Politics spend massive amounts on these services, citing how they are crucial for the populous.
That might be the case. Societal benefits aside, eventually the economics are going to destroy this. When we have an autonomous vehicle that can pick anyone up at his or her door, the days of mass transit are numbered.
How does this affect urban planning? Most major cities have entire departments dedicated to simply moving large numbers of people around. This is dead by the mid 2030s.
For the moment, autonomous vehicles are a novelty. By 2030, they will be the norm, at least in major cities. Once that happens, it simply is riding the growth curve to the point where most are pulled away from mass transit.
What this means is that any politician thinking about a new mass transit project should immediately resign from office. There is no future in this.
Complete Remaking of Society
Autonomation is going to completely remake society.
Every facet of life will be affected by robots. Automated transportation is really nothing more than robots on wheels. The intelligence that will be added to the vehicles as AI systems improve will only compound the issue.
It will be a repeat of the smartphone era. The number of people using a "dumbphone" today is next to nothing. Smartphones got to the point where most everyone could afford one.
Would you invest in a horse farm today? Perhaps if it specialized in breeding thoroughbreds. However, horses use for transportation died out long ago. The same will be true for mass transit. Trains and eventually buses will decline in use as robotaxis increase. When the cost of a driver is eliminated, the barely economically viable option of mass transit gets crushed.
Why spend a few dollars to ride the subway when one can take a robotaxi instead?