This is a story that is reverberating throughout much of the developed world. We are seeing future population declines as a major threat to the survival of many countries.
Certainly, this is a complete shift from even 15 years ago when the narrative was overpopulation as the threat to humanity.
Here is the situation in Greece:
Empty villages, disillusioned young workers, and government officials scrambling for solutions: this is the stark reality Euronews uncovered in Greece, where the country is bracing for a major population collapse fuelled by plummeting numbers of births, mass emigration, and low fertility rates.
Of course, we can say this about many countries. We have something similar happening in Japan and Germany.
This is a situation that is only going to get worse as the next few decades unfold.
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Population Decline in Greece And Others
When we look at economic productivity, that is driven historically by a couple of factors.
Economic growth comes from increase in the population and the advancement of technology. These are the two factors that figure into larger GDP.
Even with that flawed metric, we see consistency over the years. That is, until we get into a situation with Greece.
The challenge here is, before people die, they get old. With less births and people living longer, there productive pyramid is inverted. The result is less workers to support the older population.
Naturally, we can already see the problem here.
Which brings us to the third component of growth and one that is being heavily utilized: debt.
Nations across the world are running up their debt rates. Sadly, this was done even when the economy was strong. politicians with their vote buying behavior turned politics into a contest of who can give away more.
Now that we have a crisis brewing, the burden is already at an extreme level.
Greece: A Massive Decline
The numbers simply do not work in the favor of Greece.
If you will recall, this country had a massive economic/fiscal crisis a decade ago. This left the country wounded economically. Add in this situation and things are looking dire.
In 2022, the country recorded less than 77,000 births, the lowest in almost a century, while deaths nearly doubled that number, reaching 140,000. Nothing seems to indicate that this trend will change anytime soon.
It doesn't take an advanced degree in mathematics to figure this one out. It become worse when we consider the fact this isn't a nation of 40 or 50 million people.
The latest population census, in 2021, showed a 3.1% drop in the overall population in just ten years, to less than 10.5 million people. That decade broadly corresponds to the economic crisis that the country went through, which fueled the exodus of about half a million Greeks, especially among the young and educated segments of the population.
The addition of exigration only makes the situation worse. As opportunity dries up for younger people, they tend to leave. This only puts more strain on the system as the number of older people does not decline.
The Death of the EU?
Over the years I wrote of the death of the EU.
There are many ways to interpret this, something that I have done. In this article, I am using the term literally.
Western Europe is in rough shape with its demographics. In addition to Greece, Spain and Germany are the two others moving towards the cliff. Both these countries will see population declines.
All of this is compounded by the fact enormous promises were made with regards to pension. Spain has a Rolls Royce (forget Cadillac) plan. There is no way this country is going to meet those obligations.
Then we have he potential of WW3. This is going to affect Europe the most.
Of course, this is a bright side to this. war is often used as cover to default on debts. Historically, this is what governments do. I would expect many European nations to follow this strategy.
Naturally, this will cause rumblings.
It is one thing when Greece defaults and has the IMF step in. A country like Germany is another matter.
Then we have Turkey which is interest in re-establishing the Ottoman Empire. For that country, demographics is on their side.
Even the United Kingdom is going to succumb to the demographic issues. This is from Wikipedia.
Few countries are going to be spared. Greece is not going to be the last nation to make headlines of this sort.