The updated version of the Model Y is due to be delivered in the first quarter. If this mirrors what happened with the Model 3, it should bring sales to another level.
To clear inventory, Tesla extended the pricing promos through January 31, something that was previously approved through the end of the year.
Shanghai is the only market that will have the refresh to start. This iwas the path taken with the Model 3.
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Juniper Update To Ship In Q1
For obvious reasons, details are scarce on the Juniper. There is also no announcement when the updates will be done in the US and Gerrmany. The company is seeking to avoid the Obsorne Effect.
Since we have no details, we can only speculate upon the differences from the update. The Model 3 is the guide that many utilize.
Tesla is going to set a record in China for both the year and quarter. This is driven, in large part, by the new Model 3. That set a record also as scaling took place.
Watchers of the deliveries assemble this data from the insurance registrations within the country. Tesla does not release monthly numbers. That means total production and export numbers will not be known until the first week in January.
Profit Margins
Again, going from the history of the Model 3, we saw a reduction in the cost. This was done by redesigning the line and streamlining the supply chain. Tesla is moving in the direction of using parts on both vehicles.
Having this overlap puts the company in better position with its suppliers. Here is where it can drive better pricing, pulling costs down.
To achieve this, naturally, requires scaling. The Model 3 started to kick in the last couple quarters. We can expect to see a hit in Q4 and Q1. clearing out inventory comes with a cost as discounting takes place. It will requires at least a quarter to scale the production to drive the economies scale.
What this means is that Tesla will have to push from the other factories to ensure that the Model Y is, once again, the best selling vehicle in the world. Many speculate this will be repeated in 2024 although the numbers are not in. For the first time, this will be tops in the United States.
Record Deliveries
Tesla is working on achieving a yearly record for deliveries. Based upon the number through quarter 3, roughly 515K is required in the 4th quarter.
Fortunately, this is typically the best quarter in the automotive industry. The company is making a push to top 500K deliveries for the first time in its history.
The incentives on the Model Y might help. Another factor is going to be the ramp of the Cybertruck. To reach the number, a decent increase, QoQ is likely necessary.
My guess is we see the numbers coming in between 500K-510K.
As a sidenote, another point of interest will be the energy division. I discussed this a great deal over the last couple years. The Shanghai Megapack factori is due to start shipping in Q1. Obviously this will not affect the Q4 numbers. That said, Lathrop appears ramped, pumping out around 2,500 Megapacks per quarter. The contracts cause uncertainty when revenue realization can occur so there tends to be a backlog of revenue.
Evenutally, as the utilities bring the packs online, the revenue can be added to the numbers.
Will we see a jump this quarter? We will have to wait until the numbers are posted but my guess units and revenue will increase.