There is a lot going on.
One of the key for understanding what is taking place and, more importantly, where things are going, is to overcome the normalcy bias.
We are all affected by this to some degree. Humans, it appears, do not do well with change. For this reason, we gravitate towards that which we know.
For most of human history, this served us well. After all, most people, throughout our existence, did not travel more than 10 miles from where they were born. The world was a very large place.
It is only in the last few hundred years that most of humanity started to "travel".
Change was slow. Life was no different from generation-to-generation. Hence, adopting a mindset of change is rather foreign to us.
Image using Ideogram
In A Technological Era, Normalcy Bias Is The Enemy
We have to do all we can to fight the normalcy bias.
What is this? Basically, it is the idea that things will not change a great deal. Hence, the concept of radical change is shunned. People are not mentally made up to deal with change, struggling to envision linear alterations. When it comes to exponential change, forget about it.
Of course, we see this among the different generations.
The Baby Boomers and Invisible generations are the most adverse to change. That is ironic since these people enjoyed the invention of the television (at least color tv), saw human entry into space, started the personal computer revolution, and birthed the Internet.
Yet, for some reason, they are resistant to change.
Other generations are not much better. Some far rather well in terms of adopting technology. That said, when asked to consider what the future will be like, they come up blank. Even worse, they push back when others state things that seem inconceivable to them.
Over the years, I made some bold proclamations about technology. A lot of this is met with resistance. Instead, people toss out ideas that, based upon my watching of technology, are completely insane. Yet they still persist with their "small thinking".
I use that phrase because that is what we are really dealing with. A change in mindset is required. Since most are not going to do it, this will fall upon only a select few who ever read these words.
Massive Potential
Being able to "see" the future is very profitable. What is ironic is those who can see it, and do something about it, help to create it.
There is no determinism involved here. The future is nothing more than the results of actions taken today. This applies to most things in life, technology no exception.
It is said that we tend to overestimate the impact of technology in the short-term while understating it over longer periods of time.
What will happen in the next 12 months, based upon most forecasts, are likely too optimistic. However, when we stretch the timeframe out 15 years, things will be much different.
This is why it is foolish to get caught up in the nonsensical excuses people put forth when it comes to technology. While it is true that not all technologies are successful, the progression overall is pretty clear. Also, since nothing operates in isolation, there are complimentary activities that alter the path things travel.
The iPhone could not exist before it did. This was a convergence of mobile, compute, and the Internet. Each had to reach the point of advancement to converge and alter society. How many were predicting that, with the first iPhone, that smartphone penetration in the US would reach 70% in a little over 6 years? It never had been done before.
In contrast, it took more than 60 years for 70% of the US to get a landline phone.
Exponential Thinking
Convergence is the most powerful technology in the world.
When I discuss Web 3.0, I am referring to not only blockchain and cryptocurrency but also artificial intelligence, energy, robotics, data, along with fields such as bio-tech. Aspects of these are going to come together to radically alter society.
Will it happen next week? No. Even next year is off the table. Nevertheless, do not be surprised if we see this in full force 15 years from now.
Of course, it isn't a flip-the-switch moment. We will progress along, seeing improvements in different technologies, many which will impact others.
For example, massive gains in energy will drastically improve our ability at compute. Of course, more compute could lead to "smarter" systems that help us to realize massive energy gains.
This is just one area.
Most of us have seen curves like this:
Created using ideogram
The point here is to depict a non-linear progression. In finance, this is common of charts showing compounding. With technology, it is exponential.
There was nothing linear about the smartphone when it was introduced. The entire ecosystem surrounding it exploded. Think about how quickly we went from "dumb" mobile phones to digital platforms with applications that people could download.
We saw the entire spectrum from entertainment to commerce covered through these applications. How long did it take to build 1,000 Blockbuster Video stores?
Change is not only happening, it is taking place at a never-seen-before pace. Just look at the advancements in robotics since the beginning of the year. Do you think that 100 million humanoid bots is outlandish? If so, you might want to adjust your thinking. To me, that is just the beginning.
For those over the age of 30, we know that 5 years passes quickly, putting us near the end of this decade from this point. Some theorize that, by that time, we will have AGI. Whether we achieve it by that date doesn't matter (for this discussion). What is important is we will be dealing with technologies far advanced from where we are today.
This will take place in just 5 short years. Where will we be in 15 years?
To attempt at answering that question, we need to cast off the normalcy bias. Thinking that what is common today will be the norm is 15 years is misguided. Hell, how many people were engaging in video conferencing before the COVID lockdowns?
That is one example of how things changed greatly in the last 5 years. As that say, it is just the tip of the iceberg.