For the last few years I discussed the idea that we are progressing towards technological unemployment. This is a notion that many dismissed. Their argument is that technology always created more jobs than it destroyed.
There are a couple of problems with this viewpoint. It does not properly reflect reality. While there is no doubt the last Industrial Revolution was the greatest boom in human history. However, we must remember that things were not so great for the Luddites. Long the symbol of trying to stop technological progress, the fact is their lives were made worse by the Industrial Revolution.
In fact, the first 70 years were not very kind to most people. We must remember that we went through two World Wars, violent conflicts between labor and management which resulted in many deaths, and child labor working long hours in harsh conditions.
Another issue is that we never saw technology move at such a pace as we see today. The rate of change is only accelerating. We nearing the point where we see 30 years of progress coming over the next decade.
SingularityHub was started by Ray Kurzweil and Peter Diamandis. These are two futurists who's works are commonly followed.
For years, I read them deny the idea of technological unemployment. They seemed to believe that more jobs would be created by the new technologies than were destroyed.
My issue was that while this might be correct in the long term, it was not going to be the case over the next 20 years.
It seems there might be some wavering on this issue within that realm. Today, we see an article on that site, while not written by either of them, shows how the organization is shifting its views.
It is a worthy read and deals with more than just technological unemployment. In fact, it questions the entire premise of work and how it applies to us. When we live in a world where advancements are being made in automation, where does the old ideas about work fit in?
Here is the article:
For much of the last 30 years, we saw jobs destroyed in the manufacturing realm. It was a process that started in the early 1980s and gained steam in the years that followed. What started out slowly accelerated over the decades. Now, new technologies threaten a lot of what remains in the sector.
The challenge is that it is expanding where we see impact. Artificial Intelligence is starting to do to the white collar arena what took place in manufacturing.
Of course, one thing working in everyone's favor is the fact that demographic changes are pushing the need for new technology. Countries such as Japan are already seeing shortages of caregivers, as an example, thus necessitating the use of robots.
Unfortunately, demographic changes occur over decades. Technological advancements are not taking place within a decade. Many are starting to see this threat.
COVID-19, or more accurately, the response, shows how things are changing. Supply chains were disrupted which is something that companies cannot allow to happen again. At the same time, because of the need to distance, humans suddenly became dangerous things to employ. Automation is a lot less perilous.
Companies now have the cover to automate as many jobs as they can. We already see this push in the hospitality industry which was toying with automation but is investing in it to a greater degree.
Retail is another area that is seeing a lot of automation. Wal-Mart is not only trying to make checkout automated, they are having floors cleaned and shelves scanned by robots.
This is a trend that will not reverse anytime soon. We can expect it to get worse as industries such as automobiles transition to the "as a service" model.
It is amazing to witness how the viewpoint can change in just a few months.
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