It is amazing how much of a difference 6 months can make, especially when AI is involved.
During the Hollywood strikes last year, I wrote how they were done. The monopoly that studios enjoyed was going to be completely upended. This was going to spread to the entire industry, affecting everyone including the workers.
Of course, there was push back about how the unions were negotiating and would protect the workers.
Technology does not care about a contract, geographic location, or anything else. Once it is out there, it is open for anyone to use.
Technology Will Bring the Crash of Hollywood
Warren Buffett is credited with bringing the concept of a moat when analyzing companies. Basically, the best companies have something that protect then from competitors.
For example, Buffett always liked railroads because it costs a fortune to lay tracks. Hence, those with the infrastructure, i.e. rails, were going to do well.
Hollywood for decades controlled content. They had both the creation and distribution locked down.
The Internet, as I mentioned on numerous occasions, obliterated distribution channels. This was true for video and audio (music). It also allowed for creation of this to skyrocket.
In spite of the ability to create, the quality simply was not there. However, platforms such as YouTube did start to garner a lot of attention. Billions of hours of content is consumed on that site, pulling eyes away from other venues.
Social video did not rival movie studio quality. This is something that few would dispute.
That might soon be changing.
The introduction of Sora by OpenAi sent shockwaves through the tech world. People are nowmaking videos about what is starting to come out.
Here is one that delves into the technology along with its implications on Hollywood.
All of this is coming within years, not decades.
Basically, any company in the world can utilize this technology. As it improves, we will see the ability for start ups to pull even more away from the movie studios. This will filter throughout the entire industry.
In other words, everyone from graphic artists to celebrities should be extremely worried.
The Death of the Movie Star
Hollywood killed the movie star.
This was one of the barrier that could have protected these studios.
In the past, there were people who were bankable commodities when it came to feature films. Actors such as Sean Connery, Tom Cruise, and Denzel Washington were paid big bucks because they could bring in an audience.
People would show up to see Tom Cruise blow stuff up.
The problem is the age of these people. Look at the stars of the last 30 years:
- Tom Cruise - early 60a
- Stallone - 77
- Arnold - 76
- Bruce Willis - a form of dementia
- George Clooney - early 60s
- Harrison Ford - early 80s
- Denzel - 60s
What is something in common among this list? They are all getting old. Where are the younger stars?
I guess we could put the Rock in there although I am not sure he is at the level of these others. Then we have Will Smith but I am not sure he is a bankable action starconsidering the world knows how he really is.
Without the movie star, that "monopoly" is now gone.
Which brings us back to the technology.
It is likely the "celebrities" that star in the films starting in a few years will be AI created. There are already some AI pop stars out there. This will only expand at time goes by.
Will there be work for some? Sure. I believe voice work for a number of actors and actresses could prove lucrative. Outside of that, it will get tough for many.
This happened in the past.
For example, there was a time when painting family portraits was a viable professional. When was the last time you heard of someone having this done? Photography provided a replacement.
A Few Years Down The Road
There is no doubt that these text-to-video generators aren't on par in quality.
That said, where will we be in 3-4 years? According to Cathie Wood, the Wall Street technology investor, AI is far outpacing Moore's Law. Instead of doubling every 18-24 months, this is happening every 90 days.
What this means is we are going to be dealing with something a lot more powerful in a few years.
Essentially, we are looking at people such as graphic artists being replaced by someone who is adept at generating prompts. Those that can do that suddenly become filmmakers.
In fact, do not be surprised if we see AI generated videos that are near 30 minutes, and of high quality, by the end of this year.
This is a really big deal.
Disruption has occurred many times in the past. What is different is the pace which things are happening now. Within 5 years, the entire entertainment industry will be disrupted. Certainly, there will still be some aspects that draw in crowds, such as live shows.
The majority of what we know today, however, is going to be changed. If you do not believe this, consider where we were 15 months ago when ChatGPT was introduced. Notice how much things have changed in just that relatively short period of time.
Who would have guess, then, that text-to-video was going to be a realistic option?
It is time that people start to realize the pace things are operating at. We are going hypersonic compared to what took place the last few decades.
Some theorize we will see as much technological advancement in the next 10 years as we saw in the last century. Consider how life was in the 1920s. It is a world that doesn't even resemble today.
The mid 1930s could see a similar transformation.
While Hollywood is not going to completely disappear, it will be a lot smaller a decade from now.