All things come to an end.
Some last longer than others but, especially in business, there is a shelf life for everything.
Over the last 30 years, roughly, Google has built a monumental business based upon search. This is one of the pillars of the Internet as we know it. Other search engines preceded it, none of which compared to what that company brought out. The same is true over the past couple decades.
In short, when it came to search, nothing could touch Google.
Unfortunately for the company, the era of search is over. We are nOW moving toward a new model, one that will put this company in some trouble. That does not mean, of course, it is dead. Far from it. What we can say is that adjustment is required.
The End of Google Search
We saw this in recent history.
Another household name, AT&T, saw a core part of its business destroyed. In this situation, we saw the end of long distance phone service. This company was the leader in this field, generating enormous profits off this division.
The introduction of cell phone service started the demise. This was couple with VoIP which also ate into the profits. Today, who pays a long distance bill?
Naturally, AT&T is not out of business. The company is still one of the most powerful telecommunications companies in the United States. Whereas the demise of the division was complete, the company simply adapted and grew in other ways. Being one of the leading wireless carriers aided in this effort.
Google is faced with the same prospect.
Search is going to be replaced by chatbots. Over the next couple years, as these LLMs are integrated into more applications, moving to Google for information is not necessary. One will simply prompt for the information required.
While this is going to be a hit, it is not the end. Google is one of the most advanced companies when it comes to data. In fact, since the company was charting the Internet for decades, there might be no single company with more data than it.
This will help with Google's own LLM initiatives. So far, the company had a spotty record. However, this could change as they progress further with their development.
The Loss of Billions
From a financial standpoint, this is a hit of billions of dollars for Google. Many companies would be crushed by this but not this one.
In recent months we discussed how Google became the leading streaming service in the United States. With regards to hours watched, nobody, including Netflix, can match what YouTube does. The fragmentation of media is interesting from Google's perspective.
While they are at risk since there are other options from YouTube, i.e other sites allowing for video uploading, they are also disrupting the traditional movie and television operators. Whatever their loss could be from YouTube, which likely hasnt happened yet, is going to be offset by the eyeballs it pulls away from other broadcast entities.
These are the best known divisions but certainly not the only things going for the company. When it comes to software, this one can still turn to many positive developments, including the Android operating system, the overwhelming leader in mobile.
Over time, we might look back on this transition with Google the same way we do with AT&T.
After all, nothing lasts forever.