Economists there are 3 ways to get growth:
- population
- technology
- debt
When it comes to what we are witnessing, the global debt level is to the point where it is a burden on the economy. Even without a sovereign debt crisis, servicing costs are such that they are a drain on the economic productivity.
This means the third one is out.
As for population, the demographics are clear. Much of the advanced world is facing a population decline. The problem before that point is older people are not as productive as younger ones. They also require more services, adding more strain on the system.
What this means we are left with technology. The question here is what are things going to look like in a decade.
Image by Ideogram
Unlimited Population And Massive Economic Growth
The point for people to consider going forward is life with an unlimited population. This is something that blows people's minds but it is going to happen.
It is, however, exactly what we are going to see.
Let us provide a simple example:
In 2023, the United States as 3.6 million births. This is down from the most recent high of 2010, which saw roughly 4.2 million births.
What happened to those babies? How much of the work force do they make up?
The answer is zero. These kids are now only turning 14 meaning they are entering high school. With children, not only do they have to be fed and clothed, it takes them almost two decades before they are able to enter the workforce in any meaningful way.
Contrast that with robots.
Imagine a point where the United States pushed out 10 million robots in a year. This is roughly 2.5 times the number of babies born. These can immediately enter the workforce, becoming productive as soon as they are activated.
How are away is something like that? We are only talking a few years, probably around 2027 or 2028. It will only escalate from there.
This is all part of a technology megatrend that is taking place.
The Age of Abundance
I started writing and talking about this subject back in 2018. It was something that was becoming clearer as time passed.
At the core of this idea is that anything that get digitized become abundance. We can look at the facets of life where the Internet already affected and see that is the case.
Consider these areas:
Each of these areas keeps growing at an astounding rate.
With the introduction of LLMs and other forms of generative AI, we are seeing another level due to a massive explosion. Generating images can now be done in a few seconds using a program like Ideogram.
The next level to take off is going to be robotics. This will effectively provide the world with an unlimited population. Of course, they might not all be relegated to this planet.
That said, what do things look like when 1 billion robots were built. Keep in mind, these can work 16-18 hours per day, far more than a human worker. The skills are also not resident at the local level. Each upgrade is spread across the entire fleet of robots. Each new one is instantly on par with the "most experienced" bot.
How does this change the economy?
It is a situation many are starting to wrestle with. So far, we have no clear answers because, to be frank, most are not aware of how this is going to unfold. They believe things are going to advance at a pace where there is still plenty of time to prepare.
I do not believe this is the case.
Nevertheless, the overall impact will be beneficial. When we look at abundance, this ends up democratizing whatever is expanded. The entire list above is accessible by more then 5 billion people today. If we go back 40 years, most of us have very little in any category.
There is another factor many do not consider.
With the introduction of cryptocurrency, the Internet entered money. This means we are now dealing with the exponentiality of that realm.
This is why I forecast $1 quadrillion in cryptocurrency market cap. The same principles apply to all that becomes digitized.
Money is now under this realm also.
Strap yourself in. It is going to be a wild ride.