Redbox is officially dead.
The video rental company that used Kiosks to distribute DVDs, most near Walmart stores is done. Its parent company amended its bankruptcy filing from Chapter 11 to 7. This means it shifts from reorganization to liquidation.
It is a move that effectively puts the nail in the DVD rental business.
For many who are reading this, it is likely the idea of this still being a business comes as a surprise. In the era of streaming, who the heck rents DVDs? The answer, judging by the results is not many.
In this article we will take a look at what we can learn about technology.
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Dead Can Take A Long Time
Blockbuster video, probably the poster child for in-store video rental, died more than a decade ago. The parent company entered bankruptcy in 2010.
Over the ensuring years, Netflix dominated. It was so successful that media companies spent billions trying to duplicate the success. To date, it is really the only one turning a profit.
Streaming wars aside, the fact that we are dealing with a DVD rental company going bankrupt in 2024 tells us a great deal. With technology, things are often done long before they are truly done.
In other word, the demise can take a long time.
Anyone with a bit of sense knew the video rental business was dead. Making this assertion a decade ago was not much of a risk forecast. Few believed it was the future.
Yet, here we are. This company managed to stick around. Of course, this is truly the end of an era, finally.
Nevertheless, the lesson should be learned. Trying to argue that something is not dead simply because it is a sticking around is a bad tactic. When technology disrupts, it is over. The only difference is that it can take a while for things to full unfold.
A big part of this is often demographics. We see this with newspapers. There are many who still get the physical paper delivered to them. Want to guess what generation they are from? If you are thinking GenZ or Millennials, things again.
As the older generation dies off, each subscription to the physical paper goes away.
No Hope Of Revival
Many want to believe in the Goldilocks situation. They want to believe that something established is going to fend off attacks.
When it comes to the normal course of business, this could be the case. However, if we are talking about technological disruptions, the writing is clear.
For example, I have spelled out the death of Hollywood. These studios are cooked. We already saw a couple, MGM and Paramount, get bought out. Others are likely to follow as aspects of their business come under attack.
At the same time, actors are going to be discarded. By the end of the decade, the ones working will likely be the big name stars. We already see this with writers. Since the end of the strike, most writers are out of work. They thought they were getting a windfall. What ensured is a job waiting tables or driving Uber.
Certainly, the top writers are making out better. They have jobs and are getting paid more. Those who are bankable commodities are getting the attention. Everyone else is being pushed aside.
AI is the disrupter here. We already see the jobs for jingles and background music from shows and films drying up. Studios are generating that stuff with AI. After all, how often do you pay attention to the background music in a film. It is there for effect.
Does this mean Hollywood will collapse overnight? No way. Just like Redbox hanging out another 14 years, we will see a lot of this unfold over a decade or more. The size of Hollywood will decline as fragmentation occurs.
In fact, this is a trend that will affect all of media. cable news is facing the same outcome, depending upon the Baby Boomers for keeping it alive. As they pass on, there are no replacements.
Shopping malls are in the same situation. In fact, most of the commercial real estate world is going to experience a similar trend. The financial world will be turned upside down with banks taking a huge hit (they already have in many services).
Again, if you look closely, you can see where disruption is torching things. That doesn't mean we will see an instant change. But, if you know what to look for, you can see it as it occurs.