Welcome back,
Crypto market has exploded since last 24 hours as we saw Bitcoin creating a new all time as well as Ethereum crossing $3000 and since we have got to witness these movements the talks for the ALT Season has started already. Ethereum has crossed 3k mark and this was last seen in February this year so that means a time span of 4 months which is quite much at this phase of the cycle. We can discuss about many things here in this blog but for now I will like to bring your attention towards the reason why these pumps were witness and how come Eth and Btc gave us such gains out of no where.
The Reason Behind this Pump
There was a inflow of around $383 million in Ethereum ETF's in just one day of time and this is the highest recorded volume so far for the Ethereum ETF and this was one of the reasons for sure. While people are celebrating there was short positions worth $258 million dollars that got liquidated once Ethereum surged above the 2900-300 USD mark as that is where the last resistance was recorded. The betting odds for ETH as well got changed quickly where earlier around 50% bets was in the favor of ETH coming back to 2000 USD but sooner in last few days 100% odds came in the favor of hitting the 3000 USD. I think this quick shift was also because of the volume that inflowed in ETF's.
Now talking about the BTC, I have talked about this thing in the threads as well. Bitcoin stayed above its 109k resistance and we finally witnessed a massive move but technical analysis are not alone responsible here for this movement. The odds for rate cuts have increased by every day this month and we are hearing statements that indicates that rate cuts will happen this month and on top of that the Tariff pause was also extended till next month. Everything is in the favor of the market this time and so a positive move was expected.
When will ALT season arrive?
For Alt Season to arrive there are three things in my opinion that must happen.
- Decline in BTC Dominance - The dominance of bitcoin must fall and only then we will see the flow of money towards the Ethereum and other small cap coins.
- Ethereum Must outperform BTC - When the first point is done we are automatically see this happening and it will take us closer to ALT Season.
- Rate cut and money Printing - This is also a important point in my opinion. Rate cuts are important so that people will start considering shifting money to risky assets and Rate cuts will also lead to Money printing later.
The good thing here is that Ethereum has started to outperform Bitcoin is some ways. The volume in ETH futures beat Bitcoin as we witnessed this massive pump in Ethereum. I must also share that around 670 million dollars worth of short position in bitcoin was also liquidated during this massive pump in the market. It means the total liquidation is once again above $1 billion as I shared the numbers for Ethereum above already. The betting odds for Bitcoin is now in the positive price movement where we might see it reaching 125k USD according to the odds though I think it will not happen and we will see some correction soon.
At this moment I think putting hands in futures is not a good idea. Maybe a break of a day or two is must in the current situation as no technical analysis will work and everything is unexpected. We never know where will this pump stop but good thing is that even ALTS have pumped nicely. If you are planning to buy anything I will ask you to wait for a retest of previous levels. Don't chase the pump as it will only harm you, just hold your long term tokens and wait for the right time to enter again once the market cools down a little.
So while the market is pumping nicely we already shared about what are the other factors that will trigger the alt season and here we have not talked about the technical analysis for ALT coins market cap as there are some levels there as well which can be monitored for upcoming big moves prediction. I am happy as the market is going up and I ask everyone to enjoy this time as we will say good bye to these times very very soon and once bear market arrives. It will become difficult then ever to touch the market and make profits out of it.
Thank You, protect your funds, and Happy trading everyone.
