I introduced myself to the Leofinance community as a person with degrees in Economics, Accounting, Business, and Sociology. I was asked by a fellow patron if I had experience day trading and I told him that Economics sometimes doesn't go well with day trading. I wanted to share that exchange with the broader community:
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A lot of day trading today is momentum investing and sometimes this actually goes against economic models. For example, most economist would probably say that Tesla would be a better investment than Bitcoin. I would have said that. This would have been my analysis:
TSLA holds a dominant position in a new technology that will disrupt cars. Bitcoin is not the best money and its not even the best cryptocurrency. Its one of the slowest blockchains. It has high fees. Its difficult for normal people to use. The value of the coin is volatile and its not broadly accepted as a form of payment. TSLA has a self driving electric car that is fast and everybody wants one.
However, if you invest in Bitcoin from the beginning and TSLA from the beginning you would be richer if you invested in Bitcoin.
Here is what $10,000 in TSLA would be worth since its IPO (June 29, 2010):
$1,841,817
Here is what $10,000 in Bitcoin would be worth since its ICO (January 3, 2009):
$1,317,970,908
Based on feedback from the audience I would like to make some corrections below:
Original Post
Here is what $10,000 in Bitcoin would be worth since its ICO (January 3, 2009):
$1,317,970,908
Correction
Here is what $10,000 in Bitcoin would be worth since (January 1st, 2011):
$1,317,970,908
I pushed the back button arrow for the calculator as far back as it would go and I thought that it went back to the beginning (ICO) but the calculator back button only went to January 1st, 2011.
Investopedia states that the earliest trading prices were around $0.08 per BTC and interestingly enough this was in July 2010 which is very close to the Tesla IPO date. If you $0.08 as the price of BTC then BTC even looks more attractive:
$10,000 / $0.08 * $40,538.90 = $5,067,362,500
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/121815/bitcoins-price-history.asp
I agree with the commenters that any date I pick would be arbitrary, but I wanted to throw some numbers out there to really show that it would be hard for people to predict which would have done better from back in the day--hence my quote below.
“There are two kinds of forecasters,” said the economist John Kenneth Galbraith. “Those who don’t know and those who don’t know they don’t know.”
I know that I don't know :)
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