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When things go differently than you expect, it's time to reevaluate
Yesterday I talked about my "3 wave insight" which is hanging in the threads currently with BTC trading just over 34k. For me this is the real price level that has to hold in order for the whole crypto market to go on another rally (and not 30k as many people are saying). This is due to the newly identified trend line which is acting as a last support. You can see that trend line as the thicker blue line here (the one that is more horizontal):
So once again, if 34k does not hold (which might already be the case when I publish this post) I would consider this scenario as invalidated... But there is hope :)
The second insight I had yesterday was about the strange uncharacteristic shape of BTC as compared to other bull runs
In the chart above you can see what I mean: we never had a double (or as proposed here a 3 wave) top! The last phase of the bull run has so far always been the same: one huge rally to the top, a parabolic run that seemed unstoppable. But this hasn't happened. Or has it already?!
- Looking again at the last two bull runs of 2013, 2017 and compare it with the current one there is a big difference that is now becoming more evident. The "first" rally was marked by a gradual increase and a strong zig-zag movement to the top; the "second" one was marked by a gradual increase and then one steady but strong upward push; and finally, the current one had one smaller subwave and then the big push upwards and followed by a sideways movement.
I drew those basic shapes in the green pathways above the price movement. My point is that the current rally already had its bull run, contrary to the other two which had the final rally at the end of the bull market. I guess pretty much everyone has been waiting for this last big push upwards. But it seems it won't happen, because it already happened! This rally was from March 2020 to Arpil 2021 and saw a price increase of over 1500%... That was the bull market... Unfortunately we see this only in hindsight.
So why are we not in a bear market yet?
Well we might be if 34k does not hold up. If it does, then there is another argument which I have been pointing to for some time now. The other metric drawn in the chart is the time from the last halving event to the bull market top. As you can see this has always been increasing: 364 days, 511 days; so it makes sense if the next one happens even farther out. My guess is between 700 and 800 days which would mean the summer of 2022. In other words there is still time for the third wave to transpire.
This third wave wouldn't be spectacular as I am proposing 100k as the top. This isn't like the other bull runs where there was one last giant push upwards. Instead, this already happened last year; now we are left with a sideways movement which will probably shift into a bear market by the end of this year.
As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!
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