Good day Hiveians!
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Now that we have established that we are in a Bear Market, we have to expect prices to go down rather than up on average
In the last update on Hive I gave a very bullish outlook for Hive to which I want to present some more perhaps realistic scenarios. The reasoning for this shift in perspective is that Hive has not been around in a bear market and expecting that we would see a repeat of the 2021 price movement which took Hive to $3.4 in a bear market is quite unlikely.
Much will depend on whether Hive can "hold the line" in the Hive/BTC chart as well:
If so, I think the scenario linked to above is quite possible, but it is more probable to expect Hive to lose against Bitcoin in a bear market as BTC normally takes its most gains against altcoins then.
So here are 4 quite different scenarios going all the way to 2024!
- The first one is in line with the one linked to above, but seems somewhat unlikely now. The idea is that Hive has completed its corrective wave from $3.4 which concluded in the 34 cents we saw some weeks ago (which was a 90% correction!). Similarly as in 2021 we would then climb higher starting sometime in fall/winter this year. This scenario would need a bigger news event for Hive (e.g. success for one of its dapps, mainstream mention, adoption of HBD etc.). Without something like this the chances for this scenarioo happening are quite low.
- The second scenario is my favorite as I think it's the most realistic one. This would have us first going back up to about 60-70 cents before plunging for the "last time" to below the established channel. This would create a parallel channel as seen in the chart in which price would continue to move for the next years. This would mean that we could possibly go to about 25 cents (!) before starting a rally in fall/winter to break above the horizontal trend lines and stay above it with touching the lower bounds of the channel again.There could be a peak of about $7-10 at around 2024
- The third scenario is similar to the second one, but it would first drop to about 20-25 cents which would be the low point. From then on I think prices should move gradually upwards with big resistances being the horizontal trend lines. Price would first not be able to break it and stay under it until sometime in 2023 to then see a massive push upwards.
- The last scenario is the most bearish one. We would go all the way down to about 15 cents! as already talked about here. This would be of course brutal and probably entail bitcoin heading below 20k. But the silver lining is that I am 99.9% sure that Hive wouldn't drop lower than this support. It would be a gradual or somewhat fast recovery from there on out with the next stop being at around 50-60 cents (horizontal support lines). The real bull run would start perhaps at the end of 2023.
As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!
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