Yeah it's been some time since my last post. I needed a break from the Hive space, although I have still been around checking on things. Not sure if my blog is actually missed or not, but I thought about posting every now and then again.
Seems like everyone has been waiting for the big move
But it never came like it used to in the last few cycles. 2025 is awkward for Alts. The big run hasn't transpired and most coins and tokens are still under their previous ATH. It honestly feels like many have given up and moved on. In the bigger scope of things that might of course not really matter. Time is like a big filter leaving only the most relevant and strong projects afloat. But it is difficult to see a portfolio under perform in a bull market while we have grown accustomed to it in a bear.
Time for a choice
- either 2025 is the end of the cycle and we head into a bear in 2026, which would be extremely strange considering that many alts are still under water.
- or the cycle shifts and it may get more prolonged this time; perhaps Alts would peak in 2026 then? But that could also mean that Alts peak after BTC hits an ATH or both peak later?
Both options would be novel, but it seems rational for the market to stay irrational. If things get too predictable, people would too easily make money - and there is no such thing as free money, right?
TA
Bitcoin has actually performed as expected and is about to meet all the criteria necessary for the completion of a successful bull run. A final push to around 300-400k is still necessary imo.
The total lack of any meaningful bull run is apparent for alts:
In the best case Alts could see around a 14x, but more realistically a 4-5x in the coming months. Although time is clearly "running out" which is why I have that last vertical line for summer 2026.
Conclusion
This cycle is different and kind of confusing when looking at past patterns - it just doesn't fit for Alts this time. But I guess that just shows that a market is dynamic and we should too heavily rely on past patterns to "predict" the future. That said, I still hope for at least a 10x in the near future.
As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!
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