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Long wait, clear revearsal signs
Back in January I gave an outlook for Alt Season. Essentially, there was a chance for a reversal back in Q1 of this year, but I also marked an alternative outlook which would have BTC.D continue climbing until we'd reach a rather clear resistance (red horizontalish line), giving us a peak in the high 60s.
We obviously didn't get the Alt season back then, but now it seems almost guaranteed. The delayed scenario is definitely better in terms for the potential of Alts (since dominance can drop farther). It has also extended BTC's dominance rally to more than 3 and a half years (up from around 3 years). Here is an updated chart:
Why is this likely not a fake out?
- BTC.D has been rallying for more than 3.5 years, marking this as the longest rally so far
- A strong resistance from 2 former peaks which (red line) that has probably marked the top
Overall the season is quite late. If it is not going to be extremely short lived (end of this year), then I would expect a similar pattern to the last cycle, perhaps even more outstretched. This would take Alt season to around the middle or end if 2026. The "problem" with that is that 2026 should be a bear year, but perhaps not for Alts (that's a big presumption of course).
Obvious support levels are in the low 40s, so there is still a bit to go (biggest drop perhaps in Q3 of 2025). It would be surprising to see BTC.D falling below that support.
As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!
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