Good day Hiveians!
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There are different ways to define a bear market
Personally, I am defining it as the time when price makes lower lows from the ATH and hits an ATL for the cycle. Price then reverses until it makes a new high for the cycle or an ATH. But it never goes back to make a newer low again during that phase. Yet this cycle seems to be a bit different.
Hive is trading at 28 cents again which is just 3 cents higher from the ATL of the cycle... With only a bit more than a year of the "bull market" left, it ain't looking great. I could say this for many other coins/tokens or projects though. The best alts, however, seem to be around 5-10x up form their ATL of the cycle.
Technically, we could still be in the accumulation/consolidation zone atm with the real alt season still before us. I definitely think this is still the case, but I am starting to wonder if it will be a complete dud. Maybe there is only a 5x in front of us? Maybe Hive will barely scratch $1 before heading down again? Would you sell "the top" at $1? Probably not. 99% will probably hodl and hope for higher highs just to see price make lower lows.
This chart from 2 months ago is still in play, but I have had to constantly lower the blue "support":
Worst case scenario
The wick in June of 2021 has been staring me in my face for several years. Deep in my mind I was thinking that the real ATL for the cycle should be under it. Not sure if this has any basis to it, but the thought has been there. It would mean that Hive would first have to go under 16 cents to finish the cycle. The true bear would then be an extensive 2+ years... is that unheard of?
This chart actually doesn't feel wrong. Everyone would panic I am sure, but if we actually go back to 15 cents or so, this would be in summer/fall, around 1 year before the end of the cycle. We would then have exactly a year to do the crazy gains we saw in 2021. If we get a same move this would catapult price to around $5.
I hope I am wrong (or am I?), I mean it would work out in the end, right?
As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!
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