Good day Hiveians!
Join me in analyzing the crypto markets!
Looking at the long term perspective, I would argue that the next bull run for bitcoin and perhaps also other coins has already started. But if you have kept an eye on the markets you should know that the market moves in waves and not in straight lines. So even if the long-term perspective looks very positive, there will definitely be some corrections.
If we look at the last bull run we can draw an orange line that was the baseline for the market movements from 2015 to 2017. In this time the price moved up and down relative to this line. After 2017, the price started to make a parabolic move. I would argue that we can draw a similar line for the current cycle. If the market will move similarly, we should then expect the upper orange line to be our rough trend line for the time to come. Price will then move with this trend line for perhaps another year or so. Currently, price remains above this trend and therefore a smaller correction is very possible.
If we look at the beginning of 2019 there was a movement which I think is very influential for the current movement. It is a fractal that seems to have been repeated at a larger scale. Look at the two orange circles. The smaller one is the fractal for the larger one seen in the third image. The parallels are very prominent in my opinion. The only real difference is that we had a halving event (green line) which altered the fractal. In the smaller circle you can see the price moving upwards in February in a step ward fashion (Elliott impulse wave 12345). Similarly, in the bigger circle you can see this impulse wave starting with the big correction in March 2020. The smaller would then suggest a correction somewhere between 7k-10k.
If so, then a possbiel scenario could look like this:
Note that this is the most extreme correction I would expect. A correction could also be limited to the 10k levels. The four horizontal lines are my buying entries, so wish me some luck ;)
As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!
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