Good day Hiveians!
Join me in analyzing the crypto markets!
It's been over 3 weeks since my last update
What has happened since then in the markets? But before we go there, first a small recap.
In my last post, I called it officially: "The Bear Market Has Ended". Back then BTC was trading at around 25k - now we are at around 28k; so it's looking pretty good for the bull market scenario. Over 2 months ago, I also presented an outlook for 2023. Here is what it looked like:
While slightly too aggressive, we are still on track for this general scenario. Let's have a look at the current situation:
Price has continued to climb as expected and it is now hovering above the dotted line which is now a support (blues are support, orange are resistances). The orange trend lines coming up are derived from weekly and monthly candles which is why they are not completely exact. But I would still expect the trend to continue with the normal corrections along the way. Such a correction could be around 10-15%. But since there is support from the dotted line, I think we won't see a larger correction for several more weeks.
The peak of this wave is a bit hard to pinpoint. Looking at previous movements it should peak slightly above the former support (the ascending orange trend line). We also have a resistance on the weekly chart from the shoulders in the head & shoulders pattern for 2021 and 2022.
I am fairly confident that the trend will continue upwards. But I am less confident about its peak. Historical data shows that these kinds of waves have peaked in the summer months. If so, we could expect the peak to occur e.g., in July with about 35k-48k.
After this impulse wave, we can expect a correction lasting several month, probably once again ending at the end of 2023. If it finds support at the blue trend line, then this could be at around 24k.
As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!
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