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The recent correction going to 43k is nothing out of the ordinary
But it also shows that Bitcoin is currently always trading on the edge. In the last post I argued that Bitcoin is in its final wave of this bull cycle with a target of 100k. With the breakout of the downward pattern it seems reasonable to assume that Bitcoin will reach for a higher target.
But there is little wiggle room for the price heading to this target. With only about 3-4 months left of this cycle (see my older posts about why this is the target time frame), price has to mainly hold up now. The current support at 43k almost certainly has to hold for the price to reach its target. This is why I am calling this the rocky road, as we are constantly testing the minimum bare support.
For the upward trend to hold price has to recover from the current level. The green rectangle on the right is the projected path area for the next months. You can see that it converges with the 100k target as well with the months of June-August.
But a further correction to ~38k would seriously undermine this scenario (and in my opinion the whole bull market). Instead, price should remain in this rectangle if it is to maintain the somewhat steep inclination. But it seems that it will probably rather continue on the downward side of this box and only at the end pull to the upside, thereby always testing the bare minimum support.
The moon phases have already suggested a correction with the peak at the end of March coinciding with the new moon. There is about 1 week left for a sluggish price movement. We would get another moon cycle confirmation with the price trading below 47.5k with the full moon.
As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!
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