Good day Hiveians!
Join me in analyzing the crypto markets!
Last week I had some new ideas for Bitcoin since my former prediction does not seem to be playing out
I think it's important to acknowledge unsuccessful scenarios as well as successful ones as I think this makes one more capable at "understanding" the markets (they will of course always remain unpredictable, but it is possible to get basic trends correct). As such, I have previously argued that we would see a correction down to possibly 23k. I had based this idea on the rejection of an important trend line some months ago
Again, this was my outlook: I should notice that it very successfully predicted the correction from ~45k down to ~30k. But a further correction downward was averted.
I think I know now why we got an impulse wave instead (of course hindsight is always best ;) It was visible all along, but like often, the human mind just does not see it (until it is there). Just before we entered the last phase of the bull market in the previous two times, bitcoin had a unique fractal which we just completed as well. Have a look here and notice the two marked spots and compare them with the next chart:
We have again been in this red channel for some years and seem to be breaking out of it now. If this is accurate, bitcoin should continue to rally to possibly 120k and get rejected at a trend line yet to be confirmed. I drew it into this chart as all previous bull cycles have been marked by these three trend lines following to the top. It is the range in which bitcoin should trade in within the next coming months.
I would still expect the top to occur sometime in summer (+- 3 months) and be at around 250k.
As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!
Check out the Love The Clouds Community if you share the love for clouds!