Good day Hiveians!
Join me in analyzing the crypto markets!
I have long favored the bullish scenario for Bitcoin
But in light of recent events, I think the long awaited 12k price range is now a real possibility. 12k would mean absolute capitulation: everyone (except for some of the whales) would be freaking out and selling the potential bottom. This almost has to happen, as every BTC bottom had such an event. Max pain, before the ride continues. But I am not just making the statement out of thin air. There are several clues that would suggest such a scenario.
The historical trend lines point to one more lower low
I have often shared this chart. While it is more clear on the weekly chart I first want to show the bigger picture on the monthly chart. We can see a trend line from the previous bull run which suggests the bottom of the next bear market.
It gets more obvious on the weekly chart: Here you can see that price did not get stopped by this trend line, but in fact dipped under it and then tried to move over it only to get rejected. This down-up-down movement essentially market the end of the bear market. If the pattern continues, we should have at least one more lower low with the described movement.
An outlook could unfold like this:
Macro Bottoms have often occurred at the time of new year
This is more of a peculiarity I noticed at random. It is probably a rather weaker indicator. Nevertheless I want to include it here. You can see that all previous bear market came to a close in December/January. This bear market would then have also lasted about the same as previous ones (about 390 days)
This cycle would finish with the usual ~83% retracement
This is something that many analysts have pointed out: Bitcoin has so far not even reached an 80% correction. At 12k this would be almost exactly where previous bears have closed relatively.
In conclusion: Be aware! There could be one more leg down. Hopefully it will be the last for some time...
As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!
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