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Well it seems that Bitcoin is doing its thing again
That is surprising people. The market is best at that and because it is so dynamic no long range forecast is usually correct (except for a very rough outline; e,g., the doubling curve). Now that we are continually heading higher, people are starting to FOMO again. Can you believe it? After all of this FUD, a sudden reversal. How unexpected (not)!
Be careful to not get trapped in a FOMO rally as BTC has shown that it likes to reverse. In my last post you can see it here with the highlighted areas: we trade in a range and until now have always broken to the downside. Will this pattern continue?
In my previous posts I argued that we would continue to trade around 20k for quite a bit longer. But let's have a new look. What if we actually get a (mini) rally? As pointed out previously, the strange thing about the previous months is that we haven't had a bear rally. Normally BTC headed a lot higher (e.g. 60%) only to come crashing down again. But so far we "only" had 30% rallies.
If you want to look for resistances to the top, drawing trend lines is always a good option. We can just connect the previous highs to get the resistance areas. So far the first has been "broken", although this is still on shaky legs as it would only be confirmed after a couple of days staying above it.
We then get a next resistnace at around 27k. Normally prices correct after such a "long" rally and we could head back to about 24k. If we then "break the Moon-BTC cycle we could head to about 32k. I don't think it is likely that a rally would continue beyond this point, although past movements have shown that price can break out of such resistances in a bear market (as we are still in one).
32k would be a 85%+ rally from the lows of 18k. Not bad!
On the bigger scale, a move like this wouldn't be out of the ordinary. In fact, it's long overdue.
Yet I still believe that we would head lower since the bear market (as stated earlier) just doesn't end this quickly. It would likely last until the end of this year which would make this movement fit exactly into the time frame. After ~32k we could go back to ~17k before finally actually entering into the new bull cycle in early 2023.
As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!
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