Good day Hiveians!
Join me in analyzing the crypto markets!
10 days ago amidst the big crash I wondered if the bear market just ended
I meant that in a relatively lose sense of course, but I think with the rebound since then we are basically on that path. That doesn't mean that we won't see a lower low (sub 17k), but it probably won't go much lower than that. Even earlier I noticed that when we plot the monthly chart for BTC/USD, we can see that we can draw a trend line connecting the lows which almost perfectly predict the low of the following bear market. Here is that plot again predicting current levels for BTC.
We are now at these levels and the price has even come up to this trend line after briefly dipping below it. As you can see there is a second thinner trend line going quite a bit lower than current levels. This is what we get when we look at the weekly chart. As of now we can't dismiss this scenario, but there is a good indicator that we won't go that low: the RSI.
We can see from the RSI that we entered the bear market several months ago based on the previous cycles. But not only that, current RSI levels are the lowest in Bitcoin's history. In other words, Bitcoin is completely oversold currently and the chances for even greater selling pressure is therefore lower than the chances for a rebound. And since the low of 17.6k Bitcoin is up by about 17%. What we can expect is a sideways movement lasting for several months.
When we look at the previous cycles, Bitcoin has in fact always traded under this trend line for several months. This would mean that we should expect prices to hover around 15k-25k in the next months. But from a long perspective this is a sideways movement as the main downtrend has probably been completed. Here is the target are for Bitcoin until the end of this year. Also note the RSI which is at an historic low.
As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!
Check out the Love The Clouds Community if you share the love for clouds!