Good day Hiveians!
Join me in analyzing the crypto markets!
Hive is getting completely destroyed at the moment
Of course only price wise, Hive is still awesome and one of the best crypto projects out there :)
In my last posts I talked about "the ultimate bear scenario for Hive" and also about a "50 cents and a bullish reversal" scenario. It's safe to say that we are getting there rather sooner than later with Hive down 10% 15% 20%at the moment when Bitcoin is at 0% -1% -3%(which is probably going to change quickly). What can explain this free fall is that Hive lost its main support line in the Hive/BTC chart.
Ouch, not good! I had hoped for Hive to uphold this support. There isn't any supporting trend line now, so the only support comes from horizontal lines which is why I think it could drop to about 0.000012. This isn't a guarentee, so it could also drop lower, but I have some confidence that this level will hold (long term).
I want to modify the 50 cents and bullish reversal laid out a couple of days ago a bit. I basically already stated this modification in the other post linked above, but I want to repeat it here again.
We only have two more supporting trend lines for Hive before going into ultimate bear mode. But don't panic, I don't think we are going there. There is good support at ~45 cents and ~32 cents. These are the intersecting price ranges from the two trend lines. You can see them in this chart again:
This means that there are 3 likely scenarios.
- Scenario one: we hit the first supporting trend line at 45 cents and head higher.
- Scenario two: we hit the one at about 32 cents and head higher
- Scenario three: we hit the lower one and head lower still
The truth is normally somewhere in the middle... The green one is very bearish and is heading for sub 20 cents :/ so we can all hope that we don't go there. But to me it is more likely that we will be staying in the new ascending channel which will probably be the lower one of the two trend lines. On other words, I am favoring the blue scenario.
You can see the channels here:
To me the blue one just seems more likely, especially since we had that crazy wick to 16 cents last year. Something similar could happen again, briefly touching the 32 cents area.
As crazy as a 20%+ drop is, it is good news for Hive!
This is because once we have such a drop it generally means that we are in the next impulse wave. Once we dropped to 16 cents last year the next stop was $3.4! Let's hope that we stay in one of these channels, and keep a cool head ;)
As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!
Check out the Love The Clouds Community if you share the love for clouds!